Anti-Western or Champion of Justice? ElBaradie's Emerging Politics

At a mosque in Egypt's upper Delta region last week, Mohammed ElBaradie, the new face of opposition to the regime of President Hosni Mubarak, arrived to a cheering crowd of an estimated 1,500 supporters. His Facebook fan page now boasts over 200,000 members, up from just a few thousand two months ago. Some observers believe that the former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Chief and Nobel Peace Prize winner is effectively immune from the political smearing for which the state media is well known. While some outlets fault ElBaradei for having been absent from Egyptian politics for such a long period, most independent sources sympathize with his efforts to influence broad political reform.The 67-year-old ElBaradei has stated that his main goal is not to run for president, but to repair the country’s constitution after the damage caused by the amendments pass in 2005 and 2007. If ElBaradei is taken at his word, he is more likely to succeed as an ordinary citizen than as an office-seeker for two main reasons. First, efforts by the state to brand him simply as a power seeker will not stick; and second, ElBaradei will be more able to distance himself from the binds that tie the Egyptian state to the West. He can challenge the United States and European Union on their Middle East policies just as he did as head of the IAEA, but in this case to increase his domestic, rather than his international, legitimacy.An article published by the Washington-based Middle East Institute on Saturday posited that ElBaradie can only push for change if he aims to be the leader of the Republic. The logic is plausible, but it fails to consider that any closeness with the United States could create a negative association, like it did with Ayman Nour and Saad Eddin Ibrahim. While their intellectual musings are worthy goals for society, they are perceived by the Egyptian public as ineffective figures, either out of touch with the country's problems or in cahoots with American interests. If ElBaradei announces his candidacy for President, given his general agreement with their reformist ideology, a number of Washington analysts will pressure the Obama administration to take a position in support of his agenda. Egypt's autocratic machine will undoubtedly seize the opportunity to discredit him, and label him as another elitist who is attempting to infiltrate “Western-style” democracy in a Muslim majority nation.ElBaradie's criticisms of the West's policies in the region are nothing new. As head of the IAEA, he repeatedly called out the Bush administration for its inaccurate WMD analysis regarding Iraq, which earned him a reputation of independence from the influence of the United States and European Union. He can easily build upon his name as fair-minded leader willing to stand up to foreign interests, as well as to those of the corrupt government at home.Indeed, the largest discrepancy between his goals and Western states is his open acceptance of the Muslim Brotherhood in dialogue. The Islamist group, officially banned from political participation, shocked the regime in 2005 when it took 20% of the People's Assembly seats. Since then, the state has cracked down hard on their activity. The organization is now considered to have shifted away from a more progressive direction, particularly after the election of the conservative Mohammed Bady as Supreme Guide.Nonetheless, ElBaradie and his Coalition for Change are greeting the Brotherhood with open arms. The prospect of a democratic Egypt may appeal to many observers in the West, yet fear of an Islamic state may turn Washington and Brussels off the idea. Should Egyptian politics move in this direction, a wider rift between Egypt and the West could begin to open.If the Obama administration's handling of the popular movement in Iran is an indication of how it might deal with an ElBaradie government inclusive of Islamist groups, then it suggests Washington would adopt a hands-off approach. However, the current Egyptian government is among the most stable in the region. It has served as a reliable interlocutor in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and it receives more U.S. foreign aid than any other Arab state. ElBaradie's positions with the U.S. and E.U may differ from those of the Mubarak regime, but that does not mean it will result in a complete shift against the West. Whether or not Washington and Brussels will accept a government inclusive of all political actors, Islamic or otherwise, remains to be seen.The photo in this article is being used under licensing by creative commons. The original source can be found here: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b5/Msc_2008-Saturday,_14.00_-_16.00_Uhr-Moerk023_ElBaradei.jpg.