Iran Ascendant; West Must Expand Arguments

Iran’s upward trajectory continues, but its high-profile nuclear pursuits and continued support for terrorism should not obscure less dramatic developments that are quietly empowering the Islamic Republic. In the past few weeks, Iran proved it is expanding its influence deliberately and discreetly.The Iranian government started March 2010 with a diplomatic flourish in Afghanistan. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Kabul on March 9, pledging “full support for the Afghan people and Afghan government and reconstruction of Afghanistan.” Iran followed this declaration by announcing its intentions to open a consulate in Nimroz, a problematic and “sensitive” border province which has become a priority for Tehran since cross-border conflict, drug trafficking, and militant movement began threatening Iranian security. The surge in high-level diplomacy was complete with verbal attacks on the American war effort: Ahmadinejad even suggested the U.S. was fighting imaginary terrorists it “created.”Overshadowing these Afghan developments are renewed American accusations that “Iran is helping train Taliban fighters within its borders,” as reported by CNN on March 23. The accusations were inspired by new American intelligence and the increasing sophistication of IEDs found in Afghanistan, suspiciously similar to the devices used in Iraq that U.S. officials had previously claimed were the products of Iranian instructors, agents, and suppliers. The development is remarkable for two reasons: 1) Iran has historically and boldly disapproved of the Taliban. Former Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leader Mohsen Rezaie even complained in 2005 that Iran did not get “enough credit” for expelling Afghan’s Sunni Pashtun extremists. And 2) Iran’s intervention in the conflict is escalating while it pursues more substantive relations with an Afghan government burdened by the Taliban insurgency. The two policies appear contradictory but serve Tehran’s dual purposes of bleeding American forces from a distance and guaranteeing friendly Afghan relations after the occupation declines.Beyond Afghanistan, recent criminal charges in Bahrain indicate that the IRGC maintains secret associations within neighboring Gulf ministries and is managing both a money laundering scheme and an illicit weapons market that presumably funnels revenue back to Tehran. Former Bahraini Municipalities and Agriculture Affairs Minister Mansoor Bin Rajab - who was investigated in 2008 for “financial, administrative and constitutional irregularities” - was charged this month, although Iran and Bin Rajab both deny any involvement. At the same time, Iran has sought to diversify and expand its economic partnerships in the region: a recent plan set in motion by the governments of Iran, Bahrain, and Russia would expand relations through long-term contracts related to imported gas products and joint development projects. Oman is expected to join the agreement in the coming months, thus reinforcing Iranian economic and energy partnerships.Considered cumulatively, these diplomatic, clandestine, and economic developments underscore Iran’s regional intentions, which go beyond the West’s recycled grievances related to nuclear weapons and terrorism. If the U.S. wants to intervene credibly at some point—militarily or with more stringent sanctions—it must frame Iran as a “regional provocateur” whose ambitions are poisoning Bahrain, Afghanistan, and Iraq with corruption and violence. And although some of these developments cannot be characterized as “sinister” (e.g. the new Bahrain-Iran-Russia energy pact), they do signal a serious challenge to the balance of power in the Middle East. If Iran is to be isolated, Western officials must shadow the Islamic Republic and respond to provocations of all kinds.The case against Iran can and should rely on more than nuclear technology and terrorism. Western powers must convince the Middle East and the world that Iran is facilitating Muslim bloodshed, prolonging wars, and subverting regional governments. A case built on provocations beyond Iranian sponsored terrorism or contested nuclear sovereignty could prove more effective when isolating Iran regionally and globally.This article was originally published by The Mezze (http://themezze.wordpress.com), a website dedicated to Middle East analysis and founded by George Washington University students.The photo in this article is being used under licensing by flickr. The original source can be found here: http://www.flickr.com/photos/9853197@N08/1431197447/