All Roads Lead to Central Asia

Continuing instability in southern Kyrgyzstan has brought attention once again to Central Asia. Once a key link in international trade and a center of advanced scholarship, Central Asia was relegated to the periphery after years of neglect. However, the region’s strategic relevance to U.S.-led efforts in Afghanistan serves as one major reason why Central Asia’s significance has grown. Second, Central Asia’s tremendous oil and natural gas resources are thrusting the region increasingly into global energy politics. Furthermore, democratization in Central Asia is under threat due to regional instability and must be supported in order to preserve present progress.No Mere Pit StopWith the onset of U.S.-led counter-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan following 9/11, Western military cooperation with Central Asian governments grew dramatically. The Central Asian states – Kazakstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan - offered overflights and other support, while Kyrgyzstan continues to provide access to the Transit Center at Manas (formerly known as Manas Air Base) for coalition troops. Accordingly, U.S. security assistance to Central Asia has increased significantly since 9/11, with $213.1 million budgeted for the region in FY 2008, as compared to $56.1 million in FY 2000.While some skepticism may be justified, Washington has made explicit commitments to a long-term military presence in Central Asia. For one, success in uprooting militants from Afghanistan has meant that a number of terrorist groups, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), and the Islamic Movement of Turkestan (IMT), have shifted bases back to Central Asia. As groups like the IMU and IJU have been implicated in large-scale terrorist attacks in Uzbekistan and plots in Europe, terrorist threats to Central Asian governments are of great concern.EnergizedWhile security concerns may be at the top of the Central Asia agenda for some, the region’s energy resources will keep leaders across the globe awake at night for years to come. With combined natural gas reserves of 12.188 trillion cubic meters (cu m) and oil reserves topping 31 billion barrels, Central Asia’s contributions to energy markets carry economic and political weight. Accordingly, companies are flocking to the capitals of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to offer their services.While pipelines from Central Asia are still largely under Russian control, Moscow cannot afford to extract bargain basement prices for Central Asian oil and gas today. Although the process has been slow, Central Asian states have begun to loosen Russia’s grip on its energy supply. Turkmenistan, in particular, has taken the lead under its policy of positive neutrality and currently has pipelines to Iran and China. Moreover, a recent visit to India by Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov suggests that the stalled Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline project (TAPI), which would deliver gas from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to Pakistan and India, may receive renewed multilateral support.The European Union has a particularly strong interest in export diversification for Central Asian oil and gas. The South Caucasus Pipeline (Baku-Tbilis-Erzerum or BTE) and the long-delayed Nabucco project (Azerbaijan-Turkey-Austria) are seen by many as the best way to ease European dependence on Russian-controlled energy routes. However, Russian stall tactics have achieved the desired effect and progress on both projects has been slow.Rule by the People? With energy and security dominating the discourse, support for regional democratic development has been a lesser priority. Regional leaders have been unwilling to support political pluralism out of fear of losing power. With ethnic violence tearing apart Kyrgyzstan, regional leaders are undoubtedly more hesitant to open up political systems. Although the relationship between democracy and instability is tenuous, leaders of other Central Asia states cannot help but make the connection.Despite regional cynicism, hope for democracy in Central Asia need not be abandoned. Central Asia leaders remain interested in economic development, which means that greater political openness is possible. In seeking to develop their economies, regional leaders can observe that economic prosperity is only attainable and sustainable where there is economic freedom, an open economy, and market institutions. Progress in these three areas means corresponding opportunities for political freedom, pluralism, and democratic institutions. As a result, strengthening democracy should remain high on the agenda, given existing opportunities and potential benefits.The recent senseless violence in southern Kyrgyzstan will continue to draw international attention to Central Asia. Pressing security concerns with respect to counter-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan are unlikely to diminish in coming years, as U.S. foreign assistance continues to flow. Moreover, Central Asia’s prodigious energy endowments mean increasingly significant political and economic influence as thirsty markets in China and India add to existing demand in developed countries. Finally, support for the green shoots of democracy in Central Asia remains even more crucial in the face of Kyrgyzstan’s instability.Long an oasis between East and West, Central Asia’s importance will only grow with time. The players in the game for influence in the region may have changed, but the stakes are higher than ever. With the political and economic repercussions of decisions made in capitals from Astana to Ashgabat reverberating in the West and East, Central Asia may soon receive the policy attention it deserves.Aaron Beitman is a graduate of the Georgetown School of Foreign Service and currently resides in Washington, D.C.The photo in this article is being used under Creative Commons licensing. The original source can be found here.