U.S. Bases in Japan: A Perennial Problem

In Japanese politics, the more things change, the more things stay the same.In Japanese politics, the more things change, the more things stay the same.Despite the enthusiasm throughout the country after the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) ascended to power—ending nearly 54 years of uninterrupted Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) rule—Japan has not made much progress on resolving the central issues in last year’s elections. In the case of U.S. military presence on the islands of Okinawa, the problem appeared to be settled after Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, caving in to U.S. pressure, reneged on his promise to move the Futenma base out of the prefecture. He resigned after only eight months in office, and his successor, Naoto Kan, declared he would respect the original agreement, signed in 2006, to keep Futenma in Okinawa, albeit in a less-populated section of the island.However, the issue is far from dead. At the end of November, Okinawa will hold gubernatorial elections, and in a change from past elections, both candidates are running on anti-base platforms. Despite public opposition to the 2006 agreement, it is unlikely that either candidate will change the national government’s mind on Futenma.In recent months, Tokyo’s foreign policy has appeared confused and misdirected. After September’s dust-up with China in the disputed Senkaku Islands and the reopening of the feud with Russia over the Northern Territories in October, the Japanese people are losing confidence in their government’s ability to assert itself on the international stage. One recent editorial in a regional newspaper said Japan has become a “punching bag,” while another called Tokyo’s diplomacy “spineless.” These missteps highlight the DPJ’s lack of experience in foreign affairs, while also demonstrating the importance of Japan’s partnership with the United States, which Tokyo called on for support in both incidents.For this reason, the more radical of the gubernatorial candidates in Okinawa, Yoichi Iha, is probably a long shot to win the race. He has proposed converting the strategic alliance with the United States into a “friendship treaty” and wants U.S. troops moved out of Japan entirely. Such a stance, though popular in some circles, is at odds with the prevailing opinion among the Japanese public that their international position is somewhat insecure, especially given China’s status as an emerging world power.The incumbent, Hirokazu Nakaima, supports the U.S.-Japan alliance, but would prefer to see the rest of Japan share the burden of hosting U.S. troops (Okinawa is home to over 70 percent of the U.S. military presence in Japan). His moderate view has earned him the endorsement of the LDP, which aligned itself closely with the United States during its long reign. Although the DPJ has not endorsed either candidate, it would probably prefer to work with Nakaima on the base issue, as he supported the 2006 agreement until last spring, when he changed his mind in the face of popular protests.If Nakaima wins, he might urge other prefectures to take in U.S. bases, but it would be a losing battle. In a 2009 poll of all Japanese governors except that of Okinawa, only three said prefectures other than Okinawa should be expected to host U.S. troops; all 46 leaders said they would not accept U.S. facilities or training exercises in their jurisdictions.The national government is also unlikely to back Nakaima’s goal, due to intense pressure from the United States to leave the 2006 agreement unaltered. After Hatoyama’s attempt to stand up to the United States ended with his resignation, future prime ministers will be hesitant to go down that road again. As a result, Okinawans will not be relieved of U.S. bases anytime soon.Although political parties are now competitive and it would behoove the ruling party to be responsive to citizens’ demands, larger forces are at play. Japan needs and wants the U.S. military on its shores, and for strategic reasons, such as Okinawa’s proximity to Taiwan and mainland China, the United States prefers that Okinawa remain its primary base of operations in Japan.Perhaps someday Okinawa will get its wish of a reduced military presence. For that to happen, however, Japan’s national government must prove its ability to formulate a coherent foreign policy that reduces dependence on the United States and avoids antagonizing its neighbors. Thus far, the DPJ and its predecessors in the LDP have been incapable of doing so, meaning the base issue will remain a perennial thorn in the side of U.S.-Japan relations, no matter who holds the governorship in Okinawa. This image is being used under Creative Commons licensing. The original source can be found here.