The Ultimate Fight or Victory of Colonel Qaddafi?
Colonel Muammar Qaddafi might not have anticipated the types of revolts that recently occurred in Egypt and Tunisia to reach his backyard so soon. There are two simple reasons for this: his erroneous comparisons, self-appraisal, and consummate auto-satisfaction; and his utter ignorance of the aspirations of Libyan people (which are probably the least of his concerns). By Qaddafi’s standards, these are not major political crimes likely to destabilize his regime; forty-two years of service have indeed formed a cunning fox. In addition, all seem to work to his advantage.Although Qaddafi was initially alarmed by the revolutionary events when they reached his court, he amazingly appeared hours later somehow lucid. A military man by training and a shrewd manipulator, he has survived more strenuous trials. He knows how far bare-footed, empty-handed soldiers could go fighting his long established regime on such a vast terrain.In ordinary times, Qaddafi had invested huge resources in training and positioning countless destabilizing forces in all four corners of Africa. He knows he can call and count on them any time the need arises. Further, he enjoys the support, at least moral if not yet material, of a number of peers in leadership positions and in similar predicaments. Some are unfortunately praying for Qaddafi to survive, and looking up to him to set the pace the hard way, instead of seeking to respond to the needs of their own people now.Aware of the sensitivity of the West to al-Qaeda, Qaddafi did not hesitate to associate the Libyan revolt with the workings of the obnoxious politico-religious movement. This is a calculated ploy to gain favors from the vast majority of those who abhor extremism. Qaddafi also knows pertinently well that no government would dare repeat in Libya an Iraq-type of “regime change”.Conscious of Libya's weight and position in the world economy as a major oil producer, Qaddafi could afford to come gallantly out of his siege to face the international press when the revolution's casualties ceased to be counted in human terms but in dollar increments on consumables.It is evident, therefore, that Col. Qaddafi has no intention to consider the fair demands of Libyans, who in his view are no more than “rats and cockroaches” to spray with impunity as usual.Except in apartheid South Africa, sanctions, incidentally, have never worked in Africa. Were sanctions an effective means to bring about political change, the regime in Zimbabwe at the very least, and the one in Côte d’Ivoire quite recently, might have passed from the scene, Qaddafi might argue. The imposition of sanctions that do not include arms sales to Libya may be mere mockery, a chicanery to Qaddafi.Could the above signal the end of the noble aspirations and bold adventure of the Libyan people? It would appear so; Qaddafi is not accountable to Libyans because he is self-appointed. What is more certain is the fact that Qaddafi is still his old self: confident, overbearing and still in authority.Is this the ultimate fight or victory of Col. Muammar Qaddafi?Kofi Mable is a graduate in Political Psychology Studies from the Elliott School of International Affairs, GWU. He is interested in researching on "leaders and followers relationships" mainly in underdeveloped countries, Africa in particular. He was a staff of the U. N. Refugee Agency with firsthand experience in many conflict zones, such as Angola, Liberia, and Rwanda, among others This image is being used under Creative Commons licensing. The original source can be found here .
