Putin Should Be Thankful for His Newest Opponent

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is rocking the boat. Medvedev has increased his criticisms of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s legacy, issuing rare public rebukes and calling for change in the way Russia’s economy is run. Many think that Medvedev will run for reelection in 2012, contrary to earlier expectations that Putin would return to that office next year, when he becomes constitutionally eligible. Few imagined such audacity from the junior-partner when he was installed as president so smoothly just three years ago this past March.While Medvedev’s actions would have once been considered a declaration of political war, circumstances in Russia have changed, and Medvedev’s actions are not all bad news for Putin. In fact, Putin should be grateful: Medvedev’s criticisms are exactly what he needs to ensure there are no significant challenges to his authority in the near future.As things currently stand, neither Putin nor Medvedev should be too sure of his ability to win the presidency convincingly. Although both still have high approval ratings by international standards, those ratings have been fallen significantly. A pro-Kremlin think tank released a report recently indicating that Medvedev, Putin, and the ruling United Russia party have all suffered at least a 10 percent drop in approval ratings in the past year. Putin’s rating has dropped 21 percent. The increase in negative views of the political elite occurred despite highly favorable coverage from state-friendly television and print media outlets.Additionally, more Russians seem to be disenchanted with the political process in general. New data from a state-owned pollster show that the number of people who take no interest in politics has risen to two-thirds of the population. A quarter of those polled suggested that they lacked faith that ordinary citizens could change the system. Certain parts of the ruling elite, in particular the security services, have grown afraid that popular discontent coupled with new media and social networking could produce opposition and revolt, much as it did in the Middle East and North Africa, during next year’s presidential election.Allowing Medvedev to run for reelection on a platform that criticizes some of the shortcomings in Russian society, economy, and political life would take momentum away from a potential reform candidate that might appear on the national stage during the run-up to next year’s election. While it is almost unthinkable that such a candidate would win, the mere presence of such a candidate could rally popular opposition to Putin and his authority. A Medvedev reform campaign would make a true outsider unlikely to gain traction by giving voice to many of the frustrations that some Russians feel about the way their government works – and does not.Moreover, Putin’s title matters less to him than his effective control on the levers of state power. Perhaps the greatest illustration of this point is that he gave up the presidency once before. He had the popular support and legislative control to push through a constitutional amendment that would have allowed him to remain president for another term in 2008. Instead, he chose to install a loyal replacement, Medvedev, and shifted much of his control over to his new post as Prime Minister.Some will argue that recent actions by Medvedev have gone too far and represent a fundamental challenge to Putin’s authority. On April 4, Medvedev challenged one of the central tenets of Putin’s state capitalism economic model by announcing a new policy that would remove many high-ranking government ministers and Putin loyalists from their positions in state-owned companies.But one should not forget that Putin has jettisoned his one-time loyalists before, especially when such moves prove to be expedient. Last fall he did not raise any objections when Medvedev fired then-Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, formerly a Putin supporter, because Luzhkov was perceived as having become a political liability. If wise, Putin will view such developments as temporary concessions that allow Medvedev a convincing win under the reform banner. He can deal with the consequences after the election.The Putin-Medvedev tandem has proved effective at presenting two faces at home and abroad. At home, Putin stood tough against terrorism and oligarchs, and Medvedev appealed to liberals with talk of rule-of-law. Internationally, Putin confronted the United States, and Medvedev talked of the need to improve the investment climate. The two are used to marching to different drummers quite effectively. Putin would be wise to allow Medvedev-the-outsider to emerge as a new iteration of the ruling tandem model. In doing so, he would significantly decrease the likelihood of an independent, grass-roots movement taking shape and presenting a real challenge his grip on power. This image is being used under Creative Commons licensing. The original source can be found here.