Egypt’s Military Wavering on Commitment to Democracy

The euphoria that swept Cairo’s Tahrir Square on February 11 has ebbed as Egyptians confront the uncertainties and harsh realities of a transition to democracy. Egypt's central dilemma: How to maintain the internal stability critical to a power transfer without compromising the democratic process.So far, Egypt is faring poorly in striking this balance.To many Egyptians, the military establishment, which had enjoyed wide popular support for appearing to have stood by the people, removing a dictator, and promising to deliver democracy, seems to have reversed course.In recent weeks, it has detained hundreds of activists and handed a three year sentence to a blogger for “insulting the military.” According to the Egyptian daily, Al-Masry Al-Youm, students protesting on university campuses have been attacked with electric tasers by soldiers. Egyptian human rights groups also reported that young women had been subjected to demoralizing virginity tests. Just over two weeks ago, military defectors and demonstrators were beaten and shot, leaving two dead. The ‘stability’ that the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces (SCAF) is providing seems eerily similar to that provided by the regime it succeeded – stability at the expense of civil and democratic rights.The referendum held on March 19, to amend the 1971 constitution was a tentative first step toward placing the direction of the new government into the hands of the Egyptian public. It passed by a large majority, although opponents continued to press for a total redrafting of the constitution. However, just 11 days after the vote, the SCAF abandoned the approved document and implemented a different interim constitution. It included the eight amended articles from the referendum, but it hand-picked altered versions of other articles from the 1971 constitution without the consultation or consent of any actor but itself and a chosen few. This action undermined the preceding referendum and fueled the perception that the military had no qualms about subverting the democratic process if its interests were at stake.Nonetheless, many Egyptians view the military as the only establishment with the institutional capacity to manage the transition. However, political liberalization appears completely contingent upon the extent to which the armed forces will allow it. And the line between security and authoritarianism is a fine one. Allowing the military too many passes during the transition may provide room for it to consolidate its political power in the name of security rather than making way for the rise of civilian rule.Despite its recent actions, many observers still believe that the SCAF is not intent on hijacking the revolution and that there is no real and imminent threat of regression to full authoritarianism. But Egypt is in a very fragile transition, and such risks, even if limited, certainly remain.Ultimately, the decisions made during the transition phase are in the hands of the Egyptian people and leadership. The international community, particularly the U.S. – given its robust financing of the Egyptian military – should nonetheless take a stand when the lives, safety and dignity of peaceful demonstrators are threatened. In addition, the degree of success of Egypt’s transition to democracy will undoubtedly affect the stability of its neighbors and the entire region. The U.S. has far too many political and economic interests in a peaceful and successful transition in Egypt to let the process fail.Washington possesses considerable leverage with the Egyptian military; President Obama reserved $1.3 billion for Egypt’s armed forces in the 2012 budget. The U.S. ought to use this leverage to call out the SCAF when it abuses its power or when it waivers in its commitment to the democratic transition. Egypt’s transition toward democracy is still reversible; steady encouragement from Washington could keep the Egyptian armed forces—and the democratic transition—moving in the right direction.

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