North Korea's Change of Heart

Pyongyang is signaling a renewed interest in negotiations, but its reasons are unclear. The international community should be wary.Over the past decade, several restarts of the six-party talks with North Korea have led to minimal gains for all involved. Now, the country is once again ready to reenter negotiations, perhaps with a more proactive approach.This begs the question, Why now? Perhaps it is an indicator of Pyongyang’s tenuous stability as it looks to a future with Kim Jong-un as successor to his father, Kim Jong-il. North Korea could also be trying to take advantage of the fact that the United States is in economic crisis mode. Either way, the prospect of a more open North Korea should be approached with caution.Washington-Pyongyang relations have never been anything more than icy. Breakdowns in diplomatic discussions, cyber-assaults, policy differences and a human rights crisis have hardly brought the two sides closer. Despite that, the United States continues to provide aid for the North Korean people, now on the brink of starvation and in need of further aid to stave off a humanitarian nightmare. With the impending transition of power from Kim Jong-il to his son, relations with the United States have the opportunity to take a turn. Depending on the motives, that turn could be positive. The need for aid likely a reason for Pyongyang’s change of attitude, though this altered disposition is not likely to come with economic reform, something the United States believes could provide North Korea better access to food.It would be easy to claim that North Korea decided to reenter discussions under the pretense that President Obama needs a foreign policy victory heading into the 2012 presidential race. The disparity on Capitol Hill, however, makes it unlikely that any real results requiring congressional approval would come easily. One could argue that if the United States were to link humanitarian aid with security-related discussions, North Korea might be manipulated into an agreement more amenable to Washington; in the past, some successes for the United States emerged from linked diplomatic negotiations. Provided the U.S. government can come to terms on how to negotiate with North Korea, it might also be possible for the United States to leverage aid for better relations with South Korea as well. But considering the turbulent history between North and South, that might be easier said than done.Perhaps Pyongyang’s interest in renewing discussions stems from the internal belief that a crisis is brewing in the Western realm. Pyongyang hangs on the idea that if the United States is in a weakened state, six-party talks could yield more aid while helping to steady a shifting regime. Even though Kim Jong il’s son is taking the reins, hard-line government officials will need immediate assurances that their roles are not in jeopardy. With the eventual rise of Kim Jong-un, Pyongyang is likely attempting to stabilize relations with the United States and South Korea prior to his ascension as Worker Party leader. Stabilized relations would allow the young successor to establish his dominance in the Worker Party while also minimizing external pressure. When Jong-un was eighteen, he expressed regret regarding his lavish lifestyle and demonstrated empathy towards the common people. While it is difficult to determine his attitude on the issue several years later, that previous admission could provide the necessary catalyst to open more positive diplomatic relations regarding humanitarian aid, and it may also assist Jong-un in his attempts to establish his authority.A final argument surrounding North Korea’s shift suggests that the country may have an interest in currying favor with China to negotiate better diplomatic deals between the two nations. While it is common to believe that China acts as North Korea’s communist supporter, it is important to note that Pyongyang also fears its powerful Chinese neighbors. For its part, China worries over the reunification of Korea, which could weaken China’s leverage against the United States in the region. China is well aware that the U.S. military will have an easier time establishing a greater presence if Korea unifies.Ultimately, diplomatic discussions are the core reason for the North’s sudden change in attitude toward the United States. From Pyongyang’s perspective, if the United States assures non-military action, then North Korea will disarm its nuclear program. Considering the United States’ significant military power in the region, such assurances are unlikely in the near future. On the other side of the table, the United States is highly likely to leverage much-needed humanitarian aid in nuclear discussions. Provided Pyongyang continues to be unable to feed a starving nation, this strategy may bear fruit. In the end, it comes down to trust. Unless North Korea takes a bold step, it is unlikely that any significant advances will be made in this round of discussions.

Photo courtesy of soberch via Flickr.