India Enters the AfPak Fray

The United States is approving of a new strategic partnership between India and Afghanistan, but Pakistan’s discontent may make the alliance more trouble than it is worth.
A decade-old war within its borders makes it difficult for Afghanistan to foster international relations, even with its regional allies. Violent spillover from neighboring Pakistan’s tribal regions further complicates the problem. Earlier this month, however, Afghanistan joined India in a strategic partnership designed to stabilize the region. The move is a reversal of policy for India, which until now had refused to sign any such agreement. Indeed, while cooperation between the two countries holds much promise, it also carries certain risks for all involved.The newly-signed pact promotes economic development, security, and long-term trust between Afghanistan and India. From an economic standpoint, India does not have a significant amount to lose. Even with a struggling global economy, India continues to grow and develop in multiple sectors. Focused on promoting private and public investment in mining and energy resource extraction, the economic partnership will allow the Afghan people to take a more proactive approach to rebuilding their country’s infrastructure, an ongoing endeavor since Soviet occupation in the 1980s. In addition, this economic pact with India can open doors to other partnerships in Southeast Asia, including with China.A key factor contributing to India’s changed stance concerns the volatility in the region and the role the growing power can play as peacemaker. The radicalization coming from the Taliban in Pakistan, increased militant activity from the Haqqani network, and the historical tensions between India and Pakistan all put pressure on the struggling Afghan government. India appears to understand how each of these factors, including the destabilization of an already-weak Afghan government, has affected its global and regional image. The perception of India among Afghans remains positive, and the partnership runs counter to Pakistan’s ideal of a regional strategic bloc which excludes India.In recent memory, India avoided overt dealings with Afghanistan so as not to not rile up Pakistan, a fellow ally of the United States. India’s stance probably changed in large part due to the United States’ preparation to leave Afghanistan. In the past, Washington did not endorse regional alliances while it tried to stabilize Afghanistan and remove terrorist elements from the region. As the realization of a weaker Afghanistan sets in, the United States is permitting regional powers such as India to get more involved. As the largest democratic nation in the world, India is the ideal candidate to foster growth in Afghanistan after U.S. withdrawal. The nation building that the United States began can continue with support from India.The U.S. response to the strategic pact between Afghanistan and India has been generally positive. In a meeting with Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, U.S. Senator John Kerry reiterated his country’s commitment to supporting Afghanistan. The United States views the pact in some respects as a way to pressure the fragile Pakistani government to do more to prevent destabilization in the tribal regions. The United States continues to slug away at the Taliban and other terrorist elements in the border region, often to the chagrin of the Pakistanis. India understands the importance of the United States’ maintaining pressure on militant groups. If the United States were to leave prematurely, then India could face the daunting task of facing off with the militant groups in Pakistan.Pakistan’s growing discontent with Washington is another reason for U.S. support of the India-Afghan partnership. The killing of Osama bin Laden, increased drone attacks, and disagreement with U.S. foreign policy have the people of Pakistan taking a strong anti-American stance. Amid such antipathy, the U.S. needs another regional ally. Unfortunately, the strong alliance between the U.S. and India only serves to worsen the historical difficulties between India and Pakistan. Ultimately, the bond could create more difficulties for the United States’ counterterrorism work in Pakistan’s tribal regions.The strategic partnership between India and Afghanistan is a step forward for democracy and peace in the region. The agreement, however, further distances Pakistan from Afghanistan and, by extension, the United States. Time will tell if the economic and strategic benefits outweigh the dangers of an isolated Pakistan in Asia.

Photo courtesy of the_coyote_uk via Flickr.