Is the Muslim Brotherhood Really a Threat?

The Muslim Brotherhood is favored to win big in the upcoming elections, but several recent events suggest that its strong position may be waning.
Egypt’s January revolution dramatically changed the country’s political structure and the security situation of the region. As the Mubarak regime came to a crashing end, various segments of Egyptian society began the arduous task of reimagining Egyptian democracy. One of the most prominent players in this struggle is the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been an instrumental part of everyday life in Egypt since its inception in 1928.However, recent information suggests that on the eve of new elections on November 28, 2011 , the Muslim Brotherhood, organized as the Freedom and Justice Party, may not have as strong a grasp as was believed. The fracturing of the Democratic Alliance, the party bloc the Muslim Brotherhood has carefully constructed since mid-June; the rise of other Islamic parties; and the recent election losses in the Doctor’s Syndicate suggest that the Muslim Brotherhood is weakening, and beginning to moderate.The importance of the issue comes down to the security of the Middle East. The stability of the region depends on an Egypt that is able to project strength. It is for this reason that Egyptian politics are critical for United States policy makers. If Egypt turns toward a more confrontational path with the West, it may limit U.S. involvement in the country and fracture its relationship with Israel.Elections have been pushed back multiple times due to a lack of structure among the 50 various political parties. Due to the harsh restrictions established under the rule of the now-defunct National Democratic Party, opposition voices have not been able to establish themselves and develop the necessary political structures, with the exception of the Muslim Brotherhood.While the widely held perception is that the Muslim Brotherhood will win a landslide victory, recent months have highlighted several cracks in its armor. First, the Democratic Alliance has seen its numbers slowly decline. Initially starting with 34 parties, the Alliance is now at 23, with the Freedom and Justice Party the only Islamic party in the group. Furthermore, the Muslim Brotherhood itself has seen its own fragmenting with offshoots such as the Egyptian Current, Al Nahda, and Al Riyada parties all breaking away from Muslim Brotherhood control for various reasons. This illustrates the principle that once a movement defeats a common foe, ideological differences become apparent.Second, other Islamic parties have begun to gain a voice within Egypt. The current seven ultra-conservative Salafi parties are an example of this. They reject the notion of Western democracy and want to prevent Christians from reaching positions of power with Egypt. These groups pose a threat to Muslim Brotherhood dominance as they out-flank the Brotherhood on religious doctrine. As a result, the Muslim Brotherhood must either adopt a similarly radical position which could alienate moderate voters, or remain moderate, perhaps causing some to question their Islamic fervor. Regardless of their position, the inclusion of a greater number of Islamic parties would split Islamic votes helping secular parties. Recently, the Muslim Brotherhood has called on the Salafists to tone down their rhetoric , presumably for the reasons suggested.Lastly, a recent example of possible voter rejection of the Muslim Brotherhood occurred in the Doctors’ Syndicate elections on October 14, 2011 . The Doctors’ Syndicate is an association for doctors in the country that has been dominated by the Brotherhood for 30 years. While the Brotherhood’s candidate for national president, Dr. Khairy Abdel Dayem, won in a landslide, the group as a whole suffered considerable losses across the board, including a 70 percent loss of provincial syndicate seats to independent candidates. Though they continue to spin this as a sweeping overall victory, their loss of representation in a traditionally-held association of society is apparent.The Muslim Brotherhood is the most organized party in Egypt today and is favorably viewed by most Egyptians, but this may not have a direct translation to radical governance. With the development of free society, differences of opinion become more pronounced. As a result, the fragmentation of large organizations, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, forces them to reconsider their ideological positions in order to maximize and retain power. Therefore, if the Muslim Brotherhood does achieve sweeping success in the elections as many predict, the result will be a more moderate organization in order to avoid alienating the electorate.The democratic experiment currently playing out in Egypt will have major repercussions for the Middle East and the United States. While the Muslim Brotherhood has traditionally held a strong position among the Egyptian public, recent months have shown this position to be weakening. As politicking is a new development in modern Egypt, only time will tell if the Muslim Brotherhood can develop the tools to be successful in a new democratic society.

Photo courtesy of sierragoddess via Flickr.