The Perfect Storm Threatening Middle East Security

The rising trend of insecurity in the Middle East will be the greatest threat to United States’ security in the coming century.
The rising trend of insecurity in the Middle East will be the greatest threat to United States’ security in the coming century. The United States has increasingly tied itself to the region both economically, through reliance on Middle East oil producers, and militarily, by fighting to root out terrorist activity. Unfortunately, regional stability is now at the mercy of a perfect storm that is quickly taking shape. A prevalent water shortage, expanding youth population, and governmental transition to democracy are three crises whose combination could drastically derail the future of the region.First, water will be the critical resource of the region this century. The Middle East’s climate is characterized by hyper-arid zones that now appear to be expanding. Experts cite a warming of the Fertile Crescent region, which provides much of the water supply to the Middle East, and the failure of annual rains as two contributors to this growing shortage. Furthermore, water is essential for food production. Over 85 percent of water-use is for agriculture. As supply dwindles, the region will be forced to import food at a faster rate to survive. The governments of the region have been ill-equipped in dealing with the looming crisis, resorting to desalination plants and waste water re-use that have posed both ecological damage and health risks, respectively. The regimes of the Middle East have been able to uphold their legitimacy by utilizing oil wealth to subsidize crops and clean water access. As the crisis escalates, however, it will become more difficult for these governments to hold on to their control. The probability of wars and small-scale conflicts will increase and destabilize the region unless significant agreements can be reached.Secondly, the growing youth population will also contribute to the Middle East’s woes. In most countries across the region people between the ages of 15 to 29 compose the largest segment of society. Coupled with this is a degradation of available opportunities as this rising surge of people impact the education system and labor markets. School-enrollment is at an all-time high in the region with both primary and secondary school readily available to a large majority of the population. With such a high number of educated people, the economy has failed to provide high-skilled jobs to these youths leading to growing anger at the failures of their system. Youth unemployment is close to 25 percent, and on average it takes five years before finding a suitable job. The impact of this growing youth bulge on regional security is due to its strong correlation to violence and terrorist activity. With high barriers to participation in a poorly functioning economic system, this group is receptive to radicalized ideologies. Unless the United States and the regional governments can provide the youth with adequate means for upward economic mobility, they will become more willing to revolt against the system as opposed to reforming it, thus adding to the pervasiveness of terrorist organizations.Lastly, recent regional volatility can be attributed to the weak democratic governments that are emerging following the Arab Spring. As a number authoritarian regimes in the Middle East have been deposed, including those of Libya and Egypt, and more are being directly challenged, such as in Syria and Yemen, a period of transitional instability has emerged. This instability naturally stems from the development of democracy. The difficulty of this transition is due to the rising number of issues that these governments must be able to face immediately, including the growing water shortage and unemployment woes that have been discussed. Whereas an authoritarian regime could make instant decisions, a democratic government will be slower to react and susceptible to the various factions of society. A failure of these new governments to significantly address these problems could weaken their legitimacy and possibly lead to their ouster. This does not suggest that democracy in the Middle East is not possible, but simply that it will be a factor leading to insecurity in the region due to the lack of strength that is a natural byproduct of fledgling democracies.While any one of these factors could be combated by individual Middle East governments, the combination of the three into a perfect storm could irrevocably damage not only the security of the region but the United States as well. As the recent killings of Osama bin Laden and Anwar Al-Awlaki have shown, the United States has become effective in dealing with the immediate threats of terrorism in the world today; the next step should be in subverting the causes that make these threats a reality. By analyzing the future of the region, it is apparent that a storm is coming. It is imperative for the United States’ future security to resolve this looming crisis before it comes to fruition.

Photo courtesy of Jon Ragnarsson via Flickr.