Politics and Protests: Russia’s Political Future

Vladimir Putin wants the presidency. Will mass protests derail his plans?
Following the December 4, 2011, Russian parliamentary elections, which guaranteed an absolute majority of the Duma to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, an unprecedented wave of anti-government protests swept the country. Dozens of videos posted on the Internet appeared to show ballot-stuffing at polling stations, spurring unparalleled popular opposition to the ruling party as well as to Putin’s 2012 reelection bid. Starting December 5, protestors in Moscow demanded new elections and called on Putin to drop out of the presidential race. The protests rapidly spread to other parts of the country, including cities such as Tomsk, Omsk and Nizhny Novgorod, culminating in a protest march attended by an estimated fifty thousand people in Moscow on Christmas Eve.Can this unprecedented level of popular opposition succeed at changing the political status quo and thwarting Putin’s upcoming bid for presidential power? While some factors, such as the opposition’s inability to put forth a viable alternative leadership proposal and Putin’s overall disregard for the protesters’ demands, seem to suggest that it cannot, others imply that it might be successful. The example set by triumphant protest movements in Arab nations during 2011, coupled with the protesters’ overarching anger and rapid communication via Internet, might create a protest movement capable of reforming or completely reinventing Russia’s political sphere.The Russian protests received valuable support from two prominent figures on the Russian and international scene. On December 7, 2011, former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev called for the annulment of the results and a re-run of the elections, while on December 24 he once again urged Putin to resign. Although Gorbachev enjoys significant recognition abroad, in Russia his influence is relatively limited. A more influential figure on the national scene and a traditional Putin ally, Patriarch Kirill I, leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, defended the protests as being a lawful opposition to corruption. On January 7, 2012, the patriarch stepped out in favor of the protesters again, urging Putin’s government to respond to the popular demands for new elections and electoral reforms. The open, unwavering, and repeated support of the head of the Church marks the first significant rupture between these two institutions and could lead to the isolation of Putin’s political party.Putin’s government seems to have remained largely unimpressed by and, hence, unresponsive to, both the popular protests and the arguments of their high-profile supporters. Despite criticism of the fraudulent election results, the head of Russia’s Central Election Commission (CEC), Vladimir Churov, has refused to resign. Instead, he rebutted that the damning video clips, which had enraged the general public, were falsified. More importantly, Putin has refused to aknowledge the validity of the December protests, citing the fact that the Duma had already entered in session as reason to not re-run the elections. Putin’s answer demonstrates an absolute and adamant disdain not only for numerous Russian citizens’ fight against corruption and his party’s power abuses, but also for the very manner in which state affairs should be run. Putin’s statement seems to imply that, as long as the system works to serve Putin and his party’s interests, all protests and other expressions of collective frustration would be regarded as irrelevant and would remain unaddressed.Moreover, even though the mass protests have also demanded that Putin end his bid to return to the presidency in the March 2012 elections, the prime minister has repeatedly reaffirmed his candidacy. Given the state of the opposition, which has been practically nullified via oppression and state-sponsored discrimination, he will almost undoubtedly win. Putin’s thirst for power seems unquenchable, and some would argue that this desire is justified by the fact that he is undoubtedly a truly gifted and astute politician. Putin is not an elegant player though; he is more than willing to bend all the rules of the game, not only because he wants political power all to himself, but also because he believes and has stated that no one in Russia would be better than he at running the country.Is Putin right? Can no else run Russia? Unfortunately, for the moment, this is quite possibly true, given the politics of repression and aggression against the opposition that Putin and his party have led since gaining power. Not even Putin’s United Russia party seems to provide a viable alternative, as the majority of the other members accept living in the prime minister’s shadow. President Dmitri Medvedev’s support for Putin’s presidential bid in September 2011 blatantly revealed that the past 4 years had been one of Putin’s shams and that Medvedev was a mere puppet in the hands of a master puppeteer. Moreover, polls show that Putin remains the most popular Russian politician, despite his disdainful response to the December protests. Putin has supporters of all ages, ranging from seniors to around 120,000 members of the youth movement, Nashi.Given this complicated state of affairs, can popular opposition succeed at changing the political status quo? One thing is for sure: whether a minority or majority, the Russian demonstrators are an irate bunch who have only begun to unleash their anger and build momentum. During the following months, it will definitely be worth keeping a close eye on them.

Photo courtesy of max_trudo via Flickr.