China’s Challenge: a Democratic Hong Kong

Why democracy in Hong Kong doesn't challenge the Chinese status quo.
“The death of Hong Kong.” Such was the pessimistic prediction made by Fortune Magazine in 1995, two years before British-controlled Hong Kong was to be handed over to China. The liberal, commercial city would soon be ruled by an authoritarian, communist country. The magazine believed that the vibrant port of Hong Kong would lose its civil liberties and entrepreneurial spirit after the handover in 1997. However, negotiations between the United Kingdom and China prior to the event produced a special governing system to keep the Hong Kong way of life unchanged for another fifty years. The “one country, two systems” principle gives a wide range of autonomy to the territory under the status of “Special Administrative Region.” With this semi-autonomous status, Hong Kong has demonstrated a capacity for maintaining its political, cultural and social independence from the mainland, preserving a partly democratic system. Contrary to the beliefs of early skeptics, the former British colony is unlikely to fall under Beijing’s complete influence, and will continue down the path of democratic reform if its citizens so desire.Events of this past summer, taking place fifteen years after the handover, in Hong Kong provide a perfect illustration of why Fortune Magazine’s prediction does not ring true. Public unrest throughout the summer stopped the Beijing-backed executive leadership from implementing a new subject in the school system, entitled “Moral and National Education.” The new subject is criticized for its perceived bias in favor of the Chinese model, as it praises the one-party political system and brushes off major historical events like the Tiananmen massacre of June 1989. After weeks of street protests by Hong Kong activists, the government backed down from its original plan and made the subject optional for schools. Hong Kong citizens proved once again their capacity for mobilization and the strength of their civil society movement.The decision of the Hong Kong executive leadership to back away from requiring the new subject was made one day before the general elections, when Hong Kong citizens were called to the polls to renew the LegCo, the legislative assembly of the Special Administrative Region. While the local electoral system remains partly democratic and quite opaque (the Chief Executive, the top executive figure in the city, is chosen by a committee of 1,200 people), the LegCo is partly democratically elected, with 40 of the 70 seats directly chosen by citizens. The remaining seats are selected by constituencies that represent the city’s more influential residents, giving a few actors that traditionally favor the pro-Beijing parties more political weight. The 2012 elections gave a majority of seats to the pro-Beijing movement, even though the popular vote gave a 56% majority to the pro-democracy camp.The increase in voter turnout in the 2012 elections—53% after a low of 45% in 2008—is a sign that support for democratic reform is gathering, even though political participation in Hong Kong tends to be saw-toothed according to the political context. Beijing has agreed to a roadmap leading to the election of the city’s chief executive in 2017, and the entire LegCo in 2020. Nevertheless, the horizon is not clear, as China has pushed back the agenda of democratic reform before. Implementing a more democratic system also requires adequate citizen support. Despite popular interest in the education reform case, for example, it must be acknowledged that a majority of the population remains pragmatic and is satisfied with the status quo as long as the economy grows.The 2012 election and the education debate illustrate key aspects of the relationship between the former British colony and mainland China. The bridge between the “two systems” rests on thin ice when it comes to education and politics. Beijing exerts influence on local authorities as demonstrated by the controversy around the school subject. Eager to make a positive impression on local youth, China has been pushing for a more patriotic agenda to be embedded in the Hong Kong school system over time. Moreover, there has always been a strong Beijing influence on local government, despite its official autonomy. Therefore, Hong Kong’s capacity to remain distinctive from the mainland is particularly at stake in the realm of education and politics.The 30-kilometer border that separates the city from the mainland symbolizes the challenges that Hong Kong faces. Due to Hong Kong’s urbanization and economic dependence on China, this boundary is bound to blur. However, metaphorically speaking, the border still allows for the development of a separate and democratic system distinct from China’s authoritarian political practices.China should not fear more democratic reform in Hong Kong. The best way for the mainland to maintain strong relations with the city and generate greater trust from its citizens would be to respect its commitment to universal suffrage. In fact, it is not even likely that continued political reforms would harm Beijing’s influence on the city. Pro-Beijing parties have a solid electoral base in Hong Kong, and full implementation of democratic measures would take the main argument away from the democratic parties’ leitmotiv. While it is true that the pace of political reform in the city is dependent on Beijing’s goodwill, it is also driven by the political will of local citizens. As Hong Kong has recently proven, in an intense political climate, casting a ballot carries weight. Ultimately, this ballot box will also prevent the “death of Hong Kong.”

Photo courtesy of xopherlance via Flickr.