Russia Struggles to Reform Its Military

Despite efforts to reform its military, Russia faces a number of obstacles.In an interview on October 7, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov noted that “[a]lthough salaries for members of the armed forces are rising fast, Russia will continue to rely on conscription in coming years.” Since the 2008 war with Georgia, the Russian military has been attempting to shift its conventional military doctrine that relies on numbers to one that relies more on mobility and professionalism. The salary raise is part of a broader effort aimed at creating such a military by giving more incentives for young people to join as contract soldiers. Russia, however, needs to overcome a number of major obstacles in order to successfully reform its military.Historically, Russian conventional military doctrine has relied on sheer numbers to overwhelm the enemy in offense and to exhaust the enemy through protracted warfare in defense. This doctrine reached its apex during the Cold War, with the Soviet standing army numbering somewhere between 4 and 5 million. The expected opponent of the Soviet Union during this era had primarily been the technologically advanced militaries of the United States and NATO. In order to make up for its lack of advanced technology, the Soviet Union opted for numbers. The collapse of the Soviet Union, however, drastically altered Russia’s capabilities and strategic environment in two main ways, to which the Russian military has yet to adapt.First, the current Russian population is a mere 143 million, about half the size of the Soviet population at its peak, and is expected to decline to about 110 million by 2050. A smaller and shrinking population means that sustaining a large military in the long run will be difficult. The fact that the Russian state today is no longer totalitarian and is not powerful enough to coerce a large percentage of its population into military service for an extended period of time compounds the problem. In order to make up for the loss in numbers, Russia needs to incorporate more advanced technology into its military while cutting the number of troops.Second, Russia today faces a far more diverse array of challenges. The Kremlin still sees NATO backed by the United States as a major threat, especially as it has been expanding eastward, but Washington and Moscow are no longer locked in an existential struggle. Other types of challenges, however, have emerged, including domestic terrorists and militant separatists in the Caucasus. Furthermore, the former Soviet Republics that Moscow claims to be part of its historical “sphere of influence” are also eager to forge stronger relations with outside major powers, such as the United States and the European Union, and from time to time act in defiance of the Kremlin’s interests. Instead of a military geared towards fighting a massive total war, Russia needs a smaller and leaner military that can respond quickly with limited force and appropriate means to “discipline” the former Soviet Republic and also take on counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency missions.The Russian military faces a number of challenges in its modernization efforts. The Russian youth have little desire to join the military voluntarily as contract soldiers because of inadequate pay (despite the salary raise) and lack of decent social provisions, such as quality housing. Despite the fact that the troop number was reduced to 1 million (in reality, around 800,000), only about 150,000 troops are professional contract soldiers, while around 630,000 (more likely around 430,000) still remain 1-year conscripts. While 1 million is still a large number, it is far less than what the Soviet Union used to maintain. Furthermore, Russia has very open and long borders to defend as well as internal security to maintain, meaning that a relatively smaller number of troops still consisting mostly of under-motivated and undertrained conscripts are spread out over a large area.Also, while the Russian military has a plan to modernize 70 percent of its weapons and equipment by 2020 with nearly $640 billion allocated for the purpose, it is unclear whether this would be possible given the level of corruption within the Russian military and the uncertain prospects of the Russian economy, which has been propped up by high energy prices for the past decade. Lack of adequate funding has always been a problem for the Russian military and one that Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly recognizes. Russia already seems to be experiencing budget problems. Putin last month barked at the draft budget proposal for 2013-2015, saying that it would not be able to fund all of his decrees.Despite all of its problems, the Russian military, with both its conventional and nuclear forces, still remains a force to be reckoned with, at least for now. Whether it will continue to be so in the future remains unclear.

Photo courtesy of Andrey Belenko via Flickr.