The Israel-Hamas Conflict and the Arab Spring

The altered political landscape brought about by the Arab Spring is evident in the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
On November 21st, Israel and Hamas reached a cease fire with Egypt acting as the mediator. While the conflict itself was local, it could have larger regional and long-term implications because of the already volatile domestic environments created by the Arab Spring in many Middle Eastern countries. Therefore, any future Arab-Israeli conflict merits close attention.In the Middle East, the Arab Spring has had an equally transformative effect on domestic politics as this year’s presidential campaign season had on the United States. During the campaign, neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney could afford to appear weak in dealing with the countries the United States considered to be enemies. Despite the urgent need to negotiate with countries such as Iran and North Korea, the Obama administration had to appear tough in order to fend off the Romney campaign’s attacks. As a result, very little progress was made with these countries, and relations with them may have worsened in fact.Similarly, with the Arab Spring, every Arab leader has even more reason to appear tough on Israel, regardless of his personal sympathy or antipathy towards the Israelis. Appearing soft on Israel has never been a smart policy for an Arab leader in the first place. In the case of Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian president who signed the very first peace treaty between an Arab state and Israel, it proved to be fatal.Given the instability caused by the Arab Spring, not appearing tough on Israel could exacerbate what is already an extremely volatile domestic context. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt could face attacks from other parties or from the public. The Libyan government’s hold on its territory is tenuous at best, and it may feel the need to shore up support by criticizing Israel or more. All other governments in the turbulent region are also under pressure to take some kind of action, whether rhetorically or physically, in order to stave off social unrest. Any measure taken would have to be strong enough to appease the public. Therefore, any Arab-Israeli conflict in this context could have regional and long-term implications.Previously, under the so-called “stable” Arab governments, leaders could condemn Israeli actions rhetorically but not act on them and still maintain control of their states. In today’s turbulent regional and domestic context, whether it is a government trying to maintain its hold on the state (Jordan), a potential government-in-the-making (the Syrian National Coalition), or a new government in power (Egypt), it will have to tread carefully between maintaining domestic stability and maintaining status-quo relations with Israel.The argument here is not that the Arab-Israel relations will inevitably worsen and lead to wider regional conflict, but that Arab governments will have to be more dexterous in juggling domestic politics and relations with Israel than ever. Worsened relations with Israel are not constructive for any of the governments in the Middle East. Any government left standing after the Arab Spring will need to form some type of working, if discreet, relationship with Israel as well as its major patron, the United States, in both security and economic spheres. Nonetheless, as Arab states face more domestic instability, they will have to take stronger measures against Israel. The key country to watch here is Egypt (the most important in term of Israel’s security), which has yet to establish a stable domestic system.Israel on its part has its own strategic dilemma of a regional scale. In the recent conflict, Hamas has shown that it is nowobtaining rockets capable of striking at Israel’s core industrial and population centers. It is imperative that the Israel Defense Force (IDF) eliminate such threats as they arise, yet doing so once or twice does not guarantee complete elimination of the rockets nor will it prevent Hamas from obtaining them in the future. The IDF might have to intervene constantly in Gaza to guarantee Israel’s security. Nevertheless, every such intervention would fuel more anti-Israel sentiments in a volatile region.Any future Israeli operation conducted in Gaza should be quick and minimize casualties in order to minimize the effects it will have in the region. At the same time, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood should discreetly urge Hamas to restrain itself and refrain from obtaining weaponry that could reach Tel Aviv, which will inevitably prompt the IDF to strike militarily. In addition, the Muslim Brotherhood could forge stronger relations with Hamas while urging the organization to cut ties with Iran, which supplies and assists Hamas in developing the increasingly capable rockets.In times of turbulence, a local conflict might potentially affect the entire Middle East. In such a context, tact, restraint, and subtlety are prime virtues.

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