The Saudis Step Up in Syria

A little distance between the United States and Saudi Arabia is good, if it allows Saudi Arabia to take the lead on Syria.
The United States should welcome Saudi Arabia’s recent, unprecedented move of turning down a nomination to the U.N. Security Council. In September, the Saudi foreign minister refused to address the UN General Assembly in order to protest inaction in Syria and warming relations between the West and Iran. Now, the head of the Saudi intelligence service is publicly stating that they are going to distance themselves from the United States. These decisions are just the latest in a line of Saudi steps to free itself from Western influence. However, all of this is great news for the United States, because Saudi Arabia is moving steadily closer to doing something the United States no longer can or should do—intervening militarily in Syria.The importance of finding regional solutions to regional problems, however, does not mean the United States can completely disengage. Remember T.E. Lawrence's maxim: “Better the Arabs do it tolerably than that you do it perfectly. It is their war, and you are to help them, not to win it for them.” Nearly a century ago, Britain learned this lesson. It is time the United States does the same. Over the past decade, the United States has discovered the limits of its power in Afghanistan and Iraq. It seems that Saudi Arabia, after helping suppress the uprising in Bahrain and facilitating a political transition in Yemen, is ready to take the lead in its own region.The most effective diplomatic and military solutions to Syrian security issues will originate in the Arab world. When the Arab League meets next month, it will not be surprising if they make a move that exceeds arming Syrian rebels. Furthermore, they will likely go beyond providing mere diplomatic support to the Syrian National Coalition, the primary Western-supported opposition group. While the Arab League’s support will be beneficial for Syrian security, the real keystone to a more robust regional security pact in the Middle East will be strengthened diplomatic ties between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The leadership in Ankara and Riyadh must, through U.S. diplomatic efforts, be compelled to set aside their own differences in order to reach the common goal of ending Assad’s control of Syria.Oman, too, should be involved in a regionally based solution to Syrian security. In the past, Oman’s leader, Sultan Qaboos, has proven an invaluable interlocutor between the United States and Iran. He will be vital in reassuring Tehran that it has a role to play in the transition of power in Syria and ensuring that lines of communication stay open. Iran has the most to lose when Bashar Assad falls and must therefore be involved in the process. Oman represents the key to their involvement.The greatest military challenge for regionally centered security will be unifying the coalition command structure and delineating the responsibilities of the various nations. A combined Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati air force would be more than sufficient to defeat the Syrian conventional military threat, especially if Turkey provided the military airlift capability to provide operational support. This coalition would need the assistance of the Combined Air Operations Center at Al Udeid Airbase, Qatar for coordination purposes.Beyond this coalition, Iraq is currently too engulfed in its own internal issues to be of robust assistance, though they certainly have a role to play in stopping the flow of foreign fighters into Syria. Bolstering Iraqi air defenses and political will is a concrete, modest step that Washington can take to help stop Iranian weapons and fighters from flying over Iraq en route to Syria.By nature of their geography and military experiences in peacekeeping, civil affairs, and special operations, a combined Jordanian and Turkish contingent would be the best option for spearheading the ground forces. American military involvement should be limited to assistance in operational planning. At least a year of contingency planning has already occurred on this matter.The United States should welcome the possibility that our regional allies will take the lead in ending the Syrian crisis. Saudi Arabia’s decision to turn down Security Council membership implies that it is moving toward doing so. The United States should work with its allies in the Middle East to ensure that fighting in Syria ends through a peaceful transition of power, leaving the entire region stronger. If the United States can settle for a hands-off strategy designed to resolve the conflict along lines it may not find ideal, and if Saudi Arabia takes the reins, the Middle East that emerges in the long run will be more capable of dealing with its own security matters.

Photo courtesy of Valeriy Osipov via Flickr.