Re-engagement with Pakistan to Lessen Nuclear Tensions and Advance Regional Security in South Asia

Abstract: Pakistan’s nascent but rapidly developing nuclear weapons program poses perhaps the greatest threat to regional security in South Asia. The Pakistani leadership perceives India as an existential threat and their ongoing conflict over the disputed territory of Kashmir has the potential to escalate into a nuclear exchange. Islamist terrorist groups, some of which seek to acquire nuclear weapons, are also prevalent in the region. Although American-Pakistani bilateral relations have been inconsistent, long-term regional security is of common interest and can serve as a foundation for restoring the partnership. Three options that may advance security in Pakistan are considered. The first seeks to strengthen Pakistani institutions to encourage a more moderate approach towards India. The second protects Pakistan’s nuclear program against theft of nuclear material, its unauthorized use, and miscalculation during crises. The third is predicated on U.S. mediation of the Kashmir dispute. This last policy is endorsed since it strikes most directly at the dangerous dynamic involving state insecurity, nuclear weapons, and terrorist activities.