Peering Through the Fog of War: The Downing of MH17 Irrevocably Changes Ukraine's Conflict

Yesterday’s plane crash in eastern Ukraine can now be added to the growing list of tragic events that have shocked the world in recent weeks. While the cause of the crash was not immediately certain, it is now clear that a missile fired from the ground brought down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, killing all of the nearly 300 passengers and crew members on board. While the wreckage of the attacked Boeing 777 currently sits in a field controlled by pro-Russian militants, it is possible to venture a few predictions about what we can expect in the coming days as a result of this tragedy.Sources have not yet been able to confirm who is responsible for launching the missile that brought the plane down, but it is fair to say at this point that all signs are clearly pointing at the pro-Russian separatists who have occupied the region for several months and who are believed to have received ample support from the Russian military. Some facts are still unclear, but there are some things we do know for sure. We know that the separatists possessed the weaponry capable of bringing down an airliner traveling at that altitude. We know that the separatists have already shot down three Ukrainian military planes in that area in the last month. We know that one of the separatist leaders published an announcement online shortly following the crash (which was later deleted) bragging about how he had shot down what he thought was a Ukrainian military aircraft. We also know that separatist forces blocked any rescue crews from accessing the wreckage for several hours following the attack, effectively contaminating the scene of the crime and giving themselves time to remove whatever implicating materials they could. There remains little doubt that in the coming days further incriminating evidence against the militants will come to light.We can also now see how the international community has reacted and will continue to react to the tragedy. The Russian government has already displayed its now typically defiant behavior, claiming that such a terrible event would never have happened had Ukraine (and, in the Kremlin’s mind, the West) not perpetuated the violence and instability in eastern Ukraine. In fact, state-owned Russian media outlets are currently spreading the narrative that Ukrainian forces launched the missile in an unsuccessful attempt to bring down a plane carrying Russian President Vladimir Putin. While the Russian government could choose to use this chance to join a cooperative international effort to determine what really caused this catastrophic tragedy, the Kremlin has instead chosen to lay blame on others and propagate to its citizens what is highly likely to be a completely fabricated scenario.While the Ukrainian government was very quick to lay blame on the separatists for carrying out what they are calling a terrorist attack, the United States government and the major media outlets in the U.S. have exercised a great amount of caution while processing the ongoing developments surrounding the crash. President Obama gave the briefest of remarks early Wednesday afternoon about the incident, remarks in which he did not at any point address who may be responsible for the attack or offer any explanation for how it happened. Even after intelligence sources had confirmed that it was indeed a missile that brought the plane down, U.S. government officials have consistently stated that it is important not to get ahead of the facts and have been clear in emphasizing that it is not yet confirmed who carried out the attack. Considering how liberal the Kremlin has been in dispensing widespread propaganda and false narratives in recent months, it is certainly a wise decision by Washington to err on the side of caution as it tries to determine exactly what happened. It is no question, however, that the crash of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 is indeed an inflection point that will have serious consequences for the future of Russia’s relationship with the West.While a few days ago, many may have viewed the crisis in Ukraine as a geographically isolated incident which directly affected only those living in the region, yesterday’s plane crash turned the situation into one with ripple effects that reach around the globe. Countries with citizens who died in the crash will now take a direct interest in the region and in making sure that those responsible are brought to justice. The continuous refusal of the Russian government to cooperate with its European and American counterparts will lead only to a further souring of relations, most likely bringing with it heightened sanctions from the West and further retaliatory defiance from Russia. No matter the immediate consequences in the coming days, the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 will surely be remembered in future years as an event that irrevocably changed the complexion of Ukraine's crisis.