Ending Saudi Arabian Obstruction of Peace in Yemen

Since March of 2015, a civil war has raged in Yemen between two groups that support opposing regimes. The Hadi loyalists and Houthi revolutionaries both claim to be fighting for Yemen’s sole legitimate government, but rely on external support. The involvement of a number of outside actors has proven to be a delegitimizing factor for both parties, and more importantly, a stumbling block for a political solution. Nevertheless, one external power has obstructed peace negotiations more aggressively than any other: Saudi Arabia. Without a major policy change from the Saudi government, the Yemeni civil war cannot be resolved in the near term.Houthi rebels have overtaken many parts of northeastern Yemen, including the capital of Sanaa, from which they exiled the existing president and erected their own government. Houthis are Zaydi, adherents of a sect of Shia Islam, and are associated with Iran (although the exact nature of that association is the subject of much debate). Hadi loyalists support the exiled president of Yemen, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, whose supporters also include the West, southern separatists in Yemen, and Sunnis who oppose rule by a Shia government. The sectarian element of the conflict has drawn in many outside actors, escalating the violence and fueling a proxy war between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran.Saudi Arabia has served as Hadi’s safe haven ever since the Houthi capture of Sanaa forced the exiled president to flee the country. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is leading a military intervention, including airstrikes, bombing, and a blockade. Saudi Arabia lobbied aggressively and successfully for Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates to join its efforts. Saudi Arabia even involved the United States by enlisting the latter’s intelligence services, blockade enforcement, and weapons support. Ultimately, Saudi Arabia has become one of the greatest obstacles to a negotiated peace by simultaneously pursuing a cruel military offensive and demanding an unrealistic unconditional surrender.Resolving the Yemen conflict, especially in the form of a political agreement, is in Saudi Arabia’s interest. The number of Yeminis supporting terrorists in Saudi Arabia’s areas of operations grows as civilian casualties rise and community members lose hope in a peaceful solution. Meanwhile, neither of Yemen’s competing governments has enough broadly recognized legitimacy to effectively stop the spread of violent extremism in the country or to enforce basic order. As a result, the northern border of Yemen is more of a security threat to Saudi Arabia than ever.Current Saudi policy also carries serious political costs. Many key allies, including the United States, feel the international coalition’s fight to destroy ISIS should be a higher priority for Saudi Arabia. In their eyes, Yemen has become too great a diversion of Saudi attention and resources. Key international organizations and foreign media describe the air campaign in Yemen as a miscalculation, a humanitarian disaster, and a violation of international law. The longer the conflict continues, the more Saudi Arabia demands an unconditional surrender, and the more costly the war becomes for all parties, the worse off Saudi Arabia will be when the fighting eventually ends.Saudi Arabia’s allies, particularly the United States, should increase pressure on Saudi Arabia to consider compromises in peace negotiations. If diplomatic pressure is insufficient, Saudi Arabia’s allies should implement a clearly defined timetable for gradually reducing military aid and cooperation specific to the Yemen airstrike campaign. The Saudi leadership must articulate a desired outcome other than the Houthis’ unconditional surrender following military defeat. Only then will Yemen have a serious chance of achieving a near term negotiated peace.