China in Space: Scenarios for the Future

Abstract:This paper’s purpose is to picture possible space ‘schemas’ of China two-to-three decades from now. Following the introduction, section two assesses various drives which could impact the future of China’s space program. These are derived from contemporary political and technological trends, current debates on space technologies, and the trajectory of rival countries’ space programs. Hypothetical scenarios based on these factors form section three. The final section outlines three possible scenarios and identifies the boundary conditions that might trigger their materialization. This section also discusses various potential outcomes that could modify the course of the Chinese space program with respect to changes and developments in other areas like the economy, domestic stability, bilateral relations, and also domestic political developments. Finally, this paper presents policy recommendations based on assessments of the scenarios.