U.S. Diplomacy Post-Trump: Assessing the Foreign Policy Priorities of President-Elect Biden’s Right-Hand Man, Tony Blinken

What will U.S. diplomacy look like under the Biden administration? 

This question feels particularly pressing in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy platform. A shifting geopolitical landscape characterized by weakened international alliances, amplified populism, and the unceasing spread of misinformation will necessitate a shift in America’s geopolitical strategy. Ahead of Inauguration Day, we can draw insights into the potential diplomatic priorities of the incoming administration by assessing the core policy stances of the future principal advisor to the president on U.S. foreign policy—incoming  Secretary of State Antony (Tony) Blinken.

Tony Blinken’s close working relationship with President-elect Joe Biden goes back almost 20 years. After working on the National Security Council under the Clinton administration, Blinken first served as Biden’s chief foreign policy adviser back in 2002, in his capacity as staff director on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. In 2012, Blinken was appointed National Security Advisor to then-Vice President Biden—a position he held for two years. From 2014 to 2016 Blinken then served as deputy secretary of state, co-leading diplomatic efforts to counter ISIS and advising on U.S. strategy for the global refugee crisis. 

Extensive foreign policy experience has shaped Blinken’s core convictions about American world leadership and has informed the instrumental policy positions which he deems most strategically advisable. First and foremost, he is a staunch defender of global alliances. Blinken has explicitly condemned President Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, arguing that the strategy has further eroded international partnerships, fueled rising nationalism, and undermined the perceived value of democratic principles. 

Blinken firmly believes in the power of global diplomacy to defuse conflict, bolster representative politics, level the global economic playing field, and strengthen international alliances. Importantly, he also recognizes that diplomacy must be supplemented with deterrence. Being intimately familiar with the failures of American involvement in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria, Blinken understands the critical need for closely coordinated and complementary U.S. diplomatic and military efforts abroad. It is this critical nexus between diplomacy and deterrence that serves as the foundation for Blinken’s foreign policy strategies across the globe. A brief look at his core foreign policy priorities underscores this strategic vantagepoint.

Yemen

In the past, Blinken has proven himself to be capable of acknowledging and learning from  mistakes. In 2018, alongside other former top Obama officials, Blinken signed an open letter acknowledging that the initial support they gave to the Saudi war in Yemen not only failed to achieve the intended goal of conflict mitigation but also exacerbated the human rights crisis. Blinken has since repeatedly urged an end to U.S. support of the Saudi coalition in Yemen, informing Biden’s recent pledge to cut off military involvement in the conflict.

Israel-Palestine 

Blinken views Israel as an indispensable ally to the United States and strongly favors the continued unconditional provision of security assistance to Israel. In alignment with current Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and in opposition to a few prominent progressive voices in the Democratic Party, Blinken has condemned the Palestinian-led Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement—a global Palestinian-led campaign to terminate economic ties to Israel. Blinken, however, has also worked to strategically position himself as a centrist on Israel-Palestine, openly rebuking Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for expanding settlement building in the West Bank and pledging that the Biden administration would restore U.S. assistance to Palestinian authorities. 

Iran 

Having played a major role in crafting the Obama administration’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—otherwise known as the Iran Nuclear Deal—Blinken has been an outspoken critic of President Trump’s decision to pull out of the agreement. Blinken previously stated that, contingent on Iran’s strict compliance, the Biden administration would seek to rejoin and revive a stronger version of the deal, provided that other JCPOA members are also in favor of the U.S. rejoining the agreement. Unfortunately, the potential road to the agreement’s revival is already looking to be formidable, as Iran recently rejected Biden’s proposed terms.

Russia

While working in the Obama White House, Blinken played an influential role in the imposition of sanctions against Russia over the 2014 invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine—and has since touted the use of sanctions as an effective U.S. strategy in Russia. Although Blinken has earned himself a reputation as an interventionist, his experience has also instilled in him a strong belief in both the deterrent and incentivizing power of multilateralism, which is likely to guide his more measured approach to U.S. strategy in Russia. 

Militaristically, Blinken believes in strengthening the deterrent power of NATO as a strategic arm of U.S. defense against Russia by bolstering alliances. In terms of economic strategy, Blinken has stated that the Biden administration “would look to impose real, meaningful costs with coordinated sanctions” while also demonstrating some strategical nuance, explaining, “You need to be very clear and specific with Mr. Putin about what’s at risk…there might also be some incentives as to what [Putin] could gain through trade, through investment, through [a] seat at the table.” 

Although Blinken sees the value of potential cooperation with Russia on matters of mutual self-interest—such as extending the bilateral Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between Russia and the United States—he has also advocated for a tougher stance against Putin’s anti-democratic aggressions. The incoming Biden administration has already pledged to confront Putin’s interference in U.S. democratic processes, alleging that Trump has “cozied up to Putin from the beginning, giving Putin a standing that he does not deserve and undercutting our alliances in Europe and other parts of the world.” 

China 

Blinken has argued that it would be unrealistic and ill-advised for the United States to “fully decouple” from China. Similar to his multilateralist framework for relations with Russia, Blinken has reasoned that the United States should “rally our allies and partners, instead of alienating them, to deal with some of the challenges that China poses.” While his logic sounds sensible, in practice it will be difficult for the United States to satisfy both Asian country allies in favor of a tougher stance on China, including South Korea, Vietnam and Japan, and other partners in the region who would rather see a more neutral U.S. policy position. To date, Blinken has not commented on whether or not Biden should rejoin or revive the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership—a regional trade pact that he helped to craft under the Biden administration.

Central America

Under the Obama Administration, Blinken was instrumental in Biden’s move to secure bipartisan support for $750 million in aid for Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Importantly, the aid was backed by commitments of all three countries to combat corruption, address violence, and implement anti-poverty initiatives, in an effort to address the major push determinants of mass migration flows. Blinken has explained that the Biden administration plans to build on this Obama-era initiative, employing a $4 billion regional strategy which would similarly aim to stem migration flows across the region and require countries to contribute their own resources and commit to strategic reforms. This proposed plan is reflective of both Blinken and Biden’s foundational commitment to collaborative foreign aid more broadly and their shared belief in the central role of development in U.S. foreign policy. 

Conclusion

Blinken is certainly no stranger to Washington’s foreign policy establishment and has had no qualms passionately arguing for his policy positions in the lead-up to the White House transition. While both Blinken and Biden seem enthusiastic about restoring Obama-era diplomatic achievements, it remains to be seen if and how they will leverage Trump’s foreign policy gains. 

In an era of renewed great-power competition, Blinken would be wise to apply the tougher Trump-era stance on China, but shift from focusing on trade to emphasizing Chinese human rights abuses to ensure alignment with allies. Additionally, Blinken should not let his own personal focus on reviving the Iran Nuclear Deal outweigh other important considerations in the region—namely, how best to strategically leverage the new Middle East alliance network ushered in by the Trump administration. 

Obama and Trump policy precedents notwithstanding, Blinken’s most important role will be helping Biden devise new strategies for unprecedented foreign policy challenges—in and beyond the realms of climate change, misinformation, and global pandemics. Blinken has the unique opportunity to help Biden set the tone for geopolitics in the 2020s, and in so doing, to shape his own unique foreign policy legacy.