The Jaded Rainbow Nation: What Jacob Zuma’s Arrest Could Mean for South Africa’s Democratic Future

Nearly 30 years ago, much like the diamonds buried in its soil, South Africa sat as a glimmering example to the world of what could happen when reconciliation, unity, and democracy triumphed against discord and strife. Since that time, that brimming optimism and opportunity has slowly dulled as the country has endured a struggling economy, consistent lack of opportunities, and a variety of corruption scandals. Yet the recent unrest is not just a manifestation of many South Africans’ frustrations with the lack of economic opportunities: instead, it was a targeted attempt by pro-Zuma supporters to destabilize the democratic core of the country and undermine the ruling coalition. Now, President Cyril Ramaphosa must stand firm in his campaign promises to take a hardline stance against corruption and ensure that the democratic future envisioned by Nelson Mandela is secure.

On July 7, former President Jacob Zuma was arrested at his private residence Nkandla after a Constitutional Court found him guilty of contempt following his failure to appear before a commission investigating his corruption allegations. His arrest was the climax of week-long protests from his supporters who, without evidence, have claimed that Mr. Zuma had been the victim of a conspiracy, despite the majority of South Africans supporting the Court’s decision and upholding the government’s hardline approach against corruption. Zuma, who was South Africa’s president from 2009 until 2018, faced numerous allegations of corruption and unethical behavior during his tenure as president. However, his supporters, largely ethnic Zulus, view Zuma as the champion of the disenfranchised due to his lack of formal education and his  support for policies including the redistribution of wealth. This image has clashed against that of his successor and rival Cyril Ramaphosa who boasts a law degree, is a self-made millionaire, and has traditionally taken a hardline approach to corruption. 

Overwhelmingly, the root of civil unrest in South Africa lies in the fractured African National Congress (ANC), a disjointed party that united during the anti-apartheid movement, despite its politically diverse membership base. Since that time, the party has split along ideological lines, battling for political survival as a whole, with a vast rift between those who support current president Cyril Ramaphosa and former president Jacob Zuma. President Ramaphosa has had to deal with this fractious party, as key ANC officials throw their support behind Zuma. The Secretary General of the ANC, Ace Magashule, a staunch Zuma supporter, was suspended in May of this year from running the day-to-day operations of the ANC as a result of corruption charges. The suspension was seen as a win for Ramaphosa since Magashule supports the anti-Ramaphosa faction within the ANC. Yet the disunion that exists within the ANC today has continuously undermined progress in South Africa, its membership both tolerating and indulging in corruption—as was the norm under Zuma—while others, like Ramaphosa, are elected to clean up the mess.

When Zuma was elected president in 2009, he faced growing dissatisfaction among the economically disenfranchised who were awaiting the ANC’s promise of a better South Africa following the end of the apartheid regime. A charming, charismatic leader known for his iconic laughter, Jacob Zuma connected with young, vulnerable South Africans and sold the narrative of radical economic redistribution and dignity to those most adversely affected by the lack of economic opportunities in the country. While in public he preached freedom from economic inequality and oppression, in private he extorted and funneled public funds for personal use, in one instance utilizing more than $16 million in public funds to renovate his private residence Nkandla. His presidency was riddled with allegations of corruption and unethical behavior while South Africa’s job growth and economy remained stagnant. The corruption of his regime made his middle name seem something sinister: Gedleyihlekisa, which means, “I laugh at you as I destroy you.” His empty promises of a “radical socio-economic transformation” came true in the sense that his abuse of power resulted in the loss of more than 500 billion rand ($34.5 billion), or 10% of South Africa’s GDP, during the course of his presidency. Zuma’s presidency was also marred by his close relationship with the Gupta family who are embroiled in a number of economic and political scandals which have led many South Africans to believe the family sought to “capture the state.” Now, Zuma’s sins have caught up to him, and yet, he still holds tremendous political influence which he manipulated to spin the country into turmoil once again.

Zuma knows that despite his shortcomings and failures as head of state, he still wields tremendous influence, especially in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, where the violence initially began, and the only way to escape his inevitable arrest would be to incite chaos and violence. In a speech delivered by President Ramaphosa on July 12th, he acknowledged that fact stating, “This violence may indeed have its roots in the pronouncements and activities of individuals with a political purpose, and in expressions of frustration and anger.” Following this address, the Jacob Zuma Foundation tweeted on July 13th that, “Peace and stability in South Africa is directly linked to the release of President Zuma with immediate effect.” In essence, Zuma seized the opportunity to sow discord and turmoil to undermine Ramaphosa and the ruling coalition through this incident. Moreover, the violence that erupted following Jacob Zuma’s arrest was aimed at targeting essential goods and services including the Port of Durban, critical telecommunications infrastructure, and oil refineries which has led some experts to believe that this was an attempted insurrection.   

Now, South Africa faces the worst crisis it has witnessed since the end of the apartheid regime nearly 30 years ago. With dramatic food and fuel shortages threatening the very economic bedrock of the country, it is clear that the violence that erupted following Zuma’s arrest is more than just a frustration with the political system: it was a targeted attempt by pro-Zuma supporters to destabilize and overturn the ruling coalition. During his first visit to the KwaZulu-Natal province since the beginning of the violence on July 16, President Ramaphosa told reporters, “It is quite clear that all these incidents of unrest and looting were instigated, there were people who planned it and coordinated it.” Yet, Ramaphosa's actions now will determine where the country will go following this outbreak of violence.

Jacob Zuma’s arrest was just the beginning of what must happen among South Africa’s political elite if the country’s democracy is to survive. It is clear that despite taking a hardline approach to combating corruption during his presidency, Ramaphosa must still reckon with the fact that there are still many ANC officials embroiled in corruption and controversy. Going forward, Ramaphosa will need to hold corrupt officials accountable for their actions and adequately prosecute those with an existing record of unethical behavior. 

In that same vein, the internal divisions of the ANC will be its downfall. Ramaphosa must unite his party under a common goal of uprooting corruption from the political system, otherwise South Africa faces a debilitated democratic future. If the recent violence has proved anything, it is that not only are many South Africans frustrated with the lack of economic opportunities and failure of the ANC to follow through on its promises, but that there is a large coalition opposed to the progress against corruption and institutional reform who seeks to  manipulate public discord for their own political purpose. This is dangerous and damaging to the country’s democratic future, and if President Ramaphosa fails to sew the internal divisions of the ANC together under a shared goal of ending impunity for corruption and ensuring economic resiliency following the COVID-19 pandemic, it could shatter any dreams Nelson Mandela had for the Rainbow Nation.