The United States Must Reassess Its Military Aid to Tunisia to Support Democracy
In 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied boldly announced that he was suspending the Tunisian parliament in front of uniform-clad military officials. Meanwhile, the U.S.-trained Tunisian military surrounded parliament and the prime minister's office, solidifying Saied’s power grab. This self-coup was the next step in the decline of democracy in Tunisia, which for years stood as the only success story of the Arab Spring.
The United States faces an increasingly challenging situation in the Middle East as it deals with the Israel-Hamas war and the increasing threat of Iran and its proxies. While these are vital issues to address, the United States has a critical opportunity to turn around its mixed record of democracy promotion in the region while increasing regional stability and security by helping to protect Tunisia’s democracy.
The Biden administration must act swiftly to promote democracy in Tunisia. The first crucial step should be to reassess U.S. military aid to Tunisia. While many believe that sending military assistance to countries in the region enhances regional security and promotes U.S. interests, this assumption is far from the case. Long-standing U.S. strategy in the Middle East has focused on the military, emphasizing security assistance to regional partners. This strategy has not resulted in what National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan characterized on October 2, 2023, as a “quieter” Middle East. While maintaining military power in the region should still be an essential piece of the U.S. strategy, it alone will not lead to a safer and more stable Middle East. If the United States is to contribute to true security and stability in the region, it must address the root issue of democratic backsliding and authoritarianism.
Many have called out the Biden administration for continuing to support Saied’s government, including Dr. Sharan Grewal, who recently spoke at the Elliott School to discuss his book examining the Tunisian military’s role in the 2021 self-coup. Last year, Grewal, other scholars, and former U.S. government officials sent an open letter to the president that called for the immediate suspension of all U.S. assistance to the Tunisian government. The letter argues that the suspension of aid is the right decision and that the United States is legally bound to do so. Despite this and other pushback, the Biden administration has not withdrawn military support and strongly reaffirmed its security cooperation with Tunisia during the May 23-24 Joint Military Commission held in Tunis. This willingness to turn a blind eye to an autocratic regime in the name of national security interests is not unique to the Biden administration and can be seen throughout the history of U.S. foreign policy.
With Tunisia's presidential election approaching this fall, the Biden administration has an opportunity to push for change starting by publicly reconsidering its military aid to Tunisia. The military is a highly respected institution in Tunisia, and its support of Saied’s takeover gave him substantial credibility. The Tunisian military is also internally split on whether this decision was the right one. Suppose the U.S. military, which it greatly respects, condemns the Tunisian military's action in 2021, along with Saied's subsequent political use of military courts. In that case, it will likely resonate within the Tunisian military that the actions they believed were correct at the time were in fact unprofessional and undemocratic. While the United States runs the risk of alienating the military, the longstanding military relationship and lack of an equivalent security partner for Tunisia makes it a rational and necessary bet for the United States. If Saied and the public see military opinion shift, it will help spark internal momentum before the upcoming election. Suppose this does not happen and Saied continues on his path of authoritarianism. In that case, the United States can explore more drastic measures, such as fully cutting off military aid and leveraging economic incentives. In 2021, the United States suspended the $498.7 million compact of the Millennium Challenge Corporation. The United States could leverage the revival of this compact, which provides much-needed relief to Tunisia's struggling economy, to further encourage President Saied to return Tunisia to its path of democracy.
The United States is at a critical moment in defining its future Middle East policy. Will it learn from past policy errors and find success in Tunisia? Or will it “prioritize” security, look the other way, and maintain the status quo? The role of the United States in promoting democracy in the Middle East is not just a matter of regional stability, but also a reflection of its values and commitment to global democracy. If triumphant, Tunisia would stand as a much-needed beacon of hope in the Middle East and offer a compelling model for the region to follow.
Author: Stephen Stamas
Managing Editor: Alex Sarchet
Web Editor: Jordan Roberts