Russia’s Return to Africa
Russia’s announcement that it plans to open a naval base in Sudan marks a clear return of Russia to the African continent amid a push to expand its power. Since the mid-2010s, Russia has sought to reassert itself via a mix of having an official state presence on the continent and the use of private military contractors (PMCs). Thus, while former President Trump disparaged African nations as “shit-hole countries” in 2018 and later fired then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson while he was on a tour of Africa, Russia was steadily increasing its presence via diplomatic and military means. In the face of a rising Russian presence, this article will propose policy recommendations that allow the Biden administration to counter Russian influence while building strong bilateral relations with African states.
During his term, President Trump never made a single visit to Africa and only received a few African heads of state. In comparison, Russia received 10 African heads of states between 2017 and 2019. The most significant diplomatic event during this period was the Russia-Africa Summit, which brought representatives from all 54 African states, including 43 heads of state. Diplomatic ties between Russia and Africa are important—the 54 African nations represent the largest voting bloc at the UN and often vote together, and Russia is eager to court this influence. In addition to general members, African countries hold three of the 10 seats on the Security Council, known as the A3. In a further attempt to strengthen Russian-African ties, Russia has often backed the goals of the A3 at the Security Council, including blocking human rights and democratic governance initiatives. Moscow also seeks to increase its access to natural resources across Africa. One such area is in energy, where Russia seeks to develop the capacity of African nations via its state owned enterprises. Simultaneously, Russia is also increasing its soft power push, through the creation of regional Russian language centers that promote the Russian language and culture and partnerships between Russian and African universities.
Beyond diplomatic channels, Russia has sought to deepen its ties to Africa via military means. Russia’s naval base deal with Sudan is for at least 25 years, with an option to renew for another 10. The land for a Russian naval base is provided free of charge, and Russia has full autonomy over the transfer of military equipment into the country. Once fully developed, the base is expected to hold up to four naval vessels and 300 people. The signing of the naval base deal in Sudan is not Russia’s only military foray in Africa. In December 2020, Russia dispatched 300 soldiers to the Central African Republic (CAR) because of ongoing civil unrest, playing a vital role in securing a peace deal between government troops and rebels in 2019. Building on the close ties between Moscow and Bangui, the Kremlin is reportedly interested in opening a military base in the CAR as it presents an attractive gateway for extending Russian power into Central Africa, including the natural resource-rich Democratic Republic of the Congo.
In addition to a traditional military presence, Russia has also used PMCs to expand its presence. The most infamous of these organizations is the Wagner Group, which has close ties to the Kremlin. Besides the CAR, the Wagner Group is present in Sudan, Libya, Mozambique, and Madagascar. It provides a variety of services like training and supporting local forces, protecting Russian business interests, and interfering in politics by running illegal polling operations. In December 2020, Facebook removed 274 fake accounts that had spread pro-Russian narratives to six million people across Africa. These accounts were linked to the Wagner Group, demonstrating their attempts to create a pro-Russian environment across the continent.
Despite Russia’s efforts to make inroads in Africa, not all of their actions have been successful, and opportunities still exist for the Biden administration to counter Russian influence in Africa. In 2019, an Afrobarometer survey found that 75% of Africans wanted free and fair elections, spelling potential obstacles for Russia’s electoral interference activities. Furthermore, Russia has had several policy missteps including the arrest of Russian nationals attempting electoral interference in Libya. Questions have been raised about the effectiveness of Russian aid and critics claim that it is mostly symbolic in nature.
Russia’s shortcomings in Africa offer the Biden administration opportunities to counter Russian influence, and Biden should do so by focusing on the following areas. First, for far too often, American policy towards Africa has neglected to take the interests of the African countries themselves.Neglecting the unique interests of African nations or treating African states as a common entity with common interests risks significant backlash to any country’s initiatives on the continent. By working with African states to best address their individual needs, Biden can develop an Africa policy that is responsive and builds trust, supporting the interests of the United States on the continent.
Second, the United States should remain committed to promoting the ideals and values of freedom, fairness, and equality. As the Afrobarometer survey shows, Africans also want free and fair elections. American policy towards Africa does not have to, and should not, compromise in this regard. The upcoming Democracy Summit proposed by President Biden serves as an opportunity to both demonstrate a willingness to work with African leaders—in contrast to former President Trump—and to promote the values of democracy in the face of authoritarian threats such as Russia.
Finally, while some of Russia’s initiatives in Africa have failed, arms sales have succeeded in developing deeper tie. Initiatives to better regulate the arms trade and impose sanctions on entities that do sell illegal arms can help to mitigate the impact of actors such as the Wagner Group and minimize Russia’s effectiveness in developing relationships while aiming to minimize conflict.
The Biden-Harris campaign called for a, “mutually respectful engagement,” between the United States and Africa. President Putin has stated that “We [Russia] do not ally with someone against someone else; and we strongly oppose any geopolitical ‘games’ involving Africa” the reality of Russia’s actions suggests otherwise. A well-thought-out and respectful Africa policy will allow the Biden administration to counter Russia’s advances while rebuilding relations between the United States and African nations.