The Trump Administration’s Turn to Covert Action Against Iran: A Sign that “Maximum Pressure” Failed

Less than two months before the U.S. presidential election, there is still no sign that Iran is willing to negotiate a “better deal” with the Trump administration; the deal that he promised to secure during his campaign in 2016 while portraying the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or Iran Deal, signed by the Obama administration in 2015, as “a disastrous one-sided deal and the worst deal ever negotiated in U.S. history.” Both the United States and Iran are, however, still playing different strategic cards to push back the other side. In July 2019, a chain of several mysterious explosions happened in Iran. The most considerable one took place in Natanz’s new advanced centrifuge assembly facility. While Iranian authorities tried to downplay the damage, they had no choice but to admit that this was not a normal incident; in fact, it was a covert action. This assertion appears to confirm reports that President Trump had recently given U.S. intelligence the go-ahead to undertake more sabotage in Iran.

U.S. presidents variously employ four different tools in conducting foreign relations: economic policy, military policy, diplomacy, and covert operations (including cyber capabilities).  While the Obama administration masterfully utilized all of these tools to secure a deal with Iran that strongly restrained Iran’s nuclear activities, the Trump administration has limited itself to economic tools, unilaterally reimposing sanctions on Iran. In fact, the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy put only maximum economic pressure on Iran, neglecting a host of other strategies and tools. The results have been clear: Iran’s economy has been badly hurt by the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA in 2018; but in return, other countries and international organizations have marginalized the United States, contributing to a swift decline in trust and cooperation among its erstwhile allies. 

If the explosion in Natanz was indeed a covert action, an important question arises: Why has the Trump administration turned to covert actions to combat Iran’s nuclear activity? There are two possible answers: time limitations and Iran’s advancement in its nuclear technology. First, on October 18, the UN arms embargo on Iran will expire. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently asked the United Nations Security Council to extend the embargo indefinitely, but he faced resistance from China, Russia and even the European Union, which shares American concerns about Iran’s missile and regional activities. In fact, President Trump was thinking that the restoration of U.S. sanctions on Iran would cause the imminent collapse of the Iranian economy, bringing Tehran back to the negotiating table. Over four decades of hostility between the U.S. and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution demonstrates that Iran would not compromise under economic sanctions alone. Instead, if respect, multilateral dialogues, and diplomatic back-channel become the central component of the U.S. policy toward Iran, as we witnessed in 2013 Oman secret talks, Iranians would be interested in negotiations and engagements. However, in addition to soon-to-be an expired arms embargo, President Trump will also face the presidential election in November, leaving one of his premier foreign policy promises unfulfilled. 

Second, it is known that the explosion occurred in a building used for assembling a new generation of uranium centrifuges, implying that perhaps the United States was aware of Iran’s advancing nuclear capabilities and was preemptively stopping such activity. The center was to become operational in 2019 as a part of steps Iran took away from compliance with the JCPOA in retaliation to the U.S. withdrawal from the deal a year earlier. Under the JCPOA, Iran has been restricted to conducting research and development on and building advanced centrifuges for at least 8.5 years. Iran’s advanced centrifuges have the capability to enrich uranium about eight times more than Iran’s first-generation centrifuges. This high amount of enrichment capacity and knowledge production in nuclear technology will give the Iranians a huge leverage for a presumptive future negotiation with the United States and other world powers over their  nuclear program. 

Now It is understandable why the Trump administration has moved beyond economic pressure and turned to covert actions against Iran’s nuclear program. Economic sanctions alone are not working against Iran. The United States is mostly isolated in international relations, and American diplomacy has become weaker. “Maximum pressure” has failed, and President Trump may not be reelected for a second term. In fact, today Iran has more nuclear, military, missile, and regional power than it did in 2018 when President Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the Iran deal. However, President Trump still has the opportunity to reverse the terms of his failed “maximum pressure” policy if he relies on accurate and unbiased information about Iran. President Trump can still reach a new “better deal” with Iran if he understands the limitations of U.S. power in the international domain and acknowledges the reality of Iran’s power in the Middle East.