What Has Changed in Tunisia 10 Years after the Arab Spring?

In 2010, a small town in Tunisia became the epicenter of an unexpected wave of pro-democracy protests that shook the Arab world. Widespread grievances with high unemployment rates, corruption, and unyielding autocratic governments eventually led to the Arab Spring in various countries in the Middle East and North Africa, and the world took notice. Long-serving autocratic leaders were ousted in a handful of countries, and it seemed as if meaningful change was on the horizon. Despite the initial optimism, there have been few positive developments to come out of the Arab Spring. 

Advances made in Egypt and Libya towards a more democratic government quickly dissipated and protests in Syria and Yemen quickly transformed into ongoing civil wars. Even economic and political concessions made by countries such as Bahrain have had minimal impact on the conditions that instigated in the initial onslaught of protests. Consequently, this makes Tunisia’s successes all the more notable. Many scholars laud Tunisia as the only country that successfully changed local conditions in the Arab Spring. Positive developments in the country include a democratic government with fair and regular elections, more female representation in government, more Internet freedom, and a lower poverty rate. 

Despite these triumphs, a multitude of issues continue to plague Tunisia following the Arab Spring. Some prominent examples include the stagnation in the nationwide standard of living, pervasive  corruption, and an exceedingly high unemployment rate. This startling juxtaposition between Tunisia’s successes and failures since the Arab Spring calls into question whether much has truly changed. As such, this article analyzes these achievements and shortcomings of change in the country ten years after the Arab Spring and how Tunisia can leverage its successes to address its ongoing deficiencies.

Successes

The first major success of the Arab Spring in Tunisia was its ability to transition into a democracy with few hiccups in the process. This includes holding parliamentary and presidential elections that are run both regularly and fairly. According to Freedom House, as of 2020, Tunisia is currently designated as the only free country in the Arab world. Tunisia’s development into a free country is due to its remarkable democratic improvements over the last decade, especially with regard to increased political pluralism, increased political participation, and the strengthening of the electoral process itself. In addition, Tunisia now possesses the highest rate of female parliamentary members in the world at 36% and women make up half of elected local officials.

Secondly, the poverty headcount ratio for those earning less than $3.20/day has decreased dramatically in the last decade. This number has declined from approximately 11.4% to a radically lower 2.1% in the last ten years. This is one of the lowest rates within the region and is close to reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of eliminating poverty. Various incoming development projects within the country following the Arab Spring have been encouraging as well. This even includes a new covered market located in the town of Sidi Bouzid—a symbolic victory given that the local police’s prior injustices towards fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi sparked the initial outrage which led to the Arab Spring. However, these economic victories come with great stipulations that will hinder future development, including a high unemployment rate, noted decrease or stagnation in living standards, and weak infrastructure. 

Continuing Problems

Corruption is still a major problem in Tunisia, despite the process of democratization that has occurred in the country since the Arab Spring. This occurs in the face of key deterrents in place intended to mitigate this corruption, such as increased Internet freedom and empowerment among civil society organizations. Since 2010, corruption has become an even more pervasive issue, as it encompasses various levels of bribery within both the public and private sectors. Transparency International further reports that about two in three people believe corruption has increased within the last year, and additionally that about one in five public service users have paid a bribe. Given the continuing and potentially increasing severity of the issue, the changes made during the Arab Spring have clearly accomplished little in the way of reducing country-wide corruption.

Additionally, high unemployment remains an enormous constraint on economic growth for Tunisians, as current unemployment levels are actually higher than they were prior to the Arab Spring. Youth unemployment as well has suffered since that time, climbing at an ever-increasing pace and currently sitting at 36.5%. Many youth view personal and professional connections as a preferred metric for employers to make hires rather than schooling and professional skills. This logically follows given the high levels of ongoing corruption in Tunisia. Moreover, mass migration from Tunisia has ensued, especially via harqa—a common exit strategy to Europe across the Mediterranean on small boats. This alarming trend then counteracts many of the lauded successes Tunisia has possessed since the start of the Arab Spring.

Recommendations

The beginning steps of how to address this issue are difficult to pinpoint due to the breadth of the issue at hand. Traditional corruption deterrents as offered by Transparency International such as more effective law enforcement and financial management reforms are useful but difficult to appropriately apply to the Tunisian context. Country-specific recommendations from a 2017 Carnegie report advance similar ideas including improved law enforcement, but also offer more feasible options such as strengthening civil society organizations, prioritizing Tunisian anti-corruption bodies, and digitizing government processes. The first two options are very feasible with development assistance by USAID or other international development agencies that similarly run programs that focus on strengthening democratic governance. The latter option is particularly promising for Tunisia, given the success of government digitization efforts in other countries such as Ukraine with its Pro-Zorro online public procurement platform.

Unemployment is a similarly difficult issue to address given how extensive and pervasive it has become within Tunisia. The OECD also advanced a long list of recommendations that should be applied here that generally fall under three categories: the improvement of macroeconomic policies, the revival of business investment, and the reduction in labor market inequalities. Improvement in macroeconomic policies such as fiscal adjustments that allow for the redirection of public spending towards infrastructure projects should be a priority due to the need for a strong infrastructure that can assist in reducing country-wide unemployment. Reviving business investment, for example through simplifying customs procedures or speeding up permit authorization, would also create a better business environment that can attract foreign investment. Lastly, reducing labor market inequalities is much needed, as highly educated persons in Tunisia are still unable to find work and many are pushed into the informal sector. Improvements in financial inclusion (e.g. increasing access to finance for local small and medium sized enterprises) and increases in opportunities to non-coastal regions of Tunisia where the economy lags are perhaps the most important changes that can help Tunisia prosper after its decade since fighting against this ever-pervasive issue.