The New Opposition: A Serious Challenge to Hugo Chávez

After a decade of disarray, an organized oppostition is giving the Venezuelan president a run for his money.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is on the defensive. Opposition candidates squared off in a mid-November debate that gave a major boost to the previously troubled opposition. As the five candidates discussed the most pressing issues, including crime and the economy, they show-cased how much the opposition has evolved. At the onset of Chávez’s rise to power, the opposition was fragmented, disorganized, accusatory, and incompetent. However, during the recent debate, the candidates demonstrated poise and seriously addressed the concerns of many Venezuelans, instead of just criticizing Chávez. They proposed bolstering the police and developing a security committee to address the dramatic rise in crime. Regarding Venezuela’s flagging economy, candidates laid out proposals to improve education, spur job growth and youth employment, increase investment, and secure private property. Their unity and clarity have Chávez worried.That is not to say that the opposition does not face an uphill battle. Venezuela’s heavily polarized political environment forces all parties other than Chávez’s own under the umbrella of “opposition.” Uniting this hodgepodge of parties and individuals has taken nearly a decade and is a continuing process. Chávez has much more money and media access at his disposal than the opposition does. He controls the courts and electoral apparatus, which have invalidated candidates in the past on dubious grounds. Although Chávez’s cancer diagnosis lent him an initial sympathy boost, it is difficult to say how his cancer will impact the election, as there is little reliable information about his prognosis. Nonetheless, Chávez has the upper hand.Yet, the opposition has made considerable progress over the past decade. The Mesa de la Unidad, the political coalition and umbrella organization of the opposition, has thus far succeeded in avoiding the mistakes of its predecessor, the Coordinadora Democrática. The Coordinadora led a national strike, culminating in a bungled coup d’état in 2002 that only strengthened Chávez’s support. The group lacked a clear message and solid internal organization. Predictably, the Coordinadora lost a referendum in 2004 against Chávez and dissolved soon afterward.During the 2005 parliamentary elections, the opposition was so fragmented that it could not even come to a consensus on whether or not to participate. By deciding to sit the election out at the last-minute, the opposition lost nearly all of parliament to Chávez, allowing him to govern unchecked for five years. In the 2006 presidential election, exhausted from the disorganization, the opposition decided to have the three leading candidates decide amongst themselves who would run against Chávez. The subsequent infighting lasted nearly a year, leaving Manuel Rosales, the selected opposition leader, less than four months to campaign. While the opposition squabbled, Chávez was running a well-organized campaign. Rosales lost the election.The tide began to turn in 2007 when the opposition rallied support to defeat Chávez’s proposed constitutional reform. Although there were stumbles after 2007, that success was a catalyst for the movement. Opposition candidates were elected for regional and local offices, building momentum and paving the way for the formation of the Mesa.Venezuela’s opposition is no longer the jumbled, elitist, incompetent movement of the early 2000s. Led by veteran statesman Ramón Guillermo Aveledo, the Mesa has adopted better internal governance measures. The upcoming February primaries, for example, demonstrate how organized and democratic the opposition has become. All of the candidates and Mesa members recently signed an agreement to respect the outcome of the primary election and support the chosen candidate’s campaign. The Mesa is committed to helping the potential president organize a “unity government” that respects human rights, democracy, and political pluralism.The pictures of all five candidates—Leopoldo López, Henrique Capriles, Pablo Pérez, Maria Corina Machado, and Diego Arria—holding hands has appeared in newspapers across Venezuela and stands in stark contrast to the infighting of before. It is evident from Chávez’s behavior after last week’s debate that he is well aware of the opposition’s progress. After the candidates thoroughly criticized Chávez for not addressing Venezuela’s growing crime problem, he announced the creation of the People’s Guard, a 1,500-strong force focused on disarmament, patrolling areas plagued by drugs and alcohol, and reducing violent crime. He declared that if the opposition continues to criticize him, he will stay in office until 2021, 2031, or even 2041. His actions are those of a worried man.As the October 2012 election approaches, it will not be the same old Chávez against the same old opposition. The question remains to be seen, however, if Venezuela’s opposition will have progressed enough to defeat the strongman at the polls.

Photo courtesy ¡Que comunismo! via Flickr