Latin America and the New Geopolitics of Climate Change

Secretary of State John Kerry spoke on November 18 at the Organization of American States about U.S. foreign policy in the Western Hemisphere. His speech indicated a formal replacement of the Monroe Doctrine, a policy that governed U.S. relations with Latin America for almost two centuries, with a new policy based on greater cooperation and responsibility for shared interests such as democracy, economic development, and security. Though his speech focused on this formal declaration, it should also be recognized for its emphasis on climate change and clean energy development throughout the hemisphere. Secretary Kerry’s remarks underscored an essential aspect of tomorrow’s international security politics: that Latin America has the potential to shape the geopolitics of climate change in the 21st century.Analysts of geopolitics examine geographical arrangements and conceptions of global politics. For example, imperialist motivations and the struggle for political dominance characterized 20th century geopolitics. Practitioners analyzed the use and implications of power when international bodies sought territorial interests. A common understanding of geopolitics follows social-social theory, which explains that social problems lead to social and political changes. But climate change requires a new way of understanding geopolitics based on a physical-social theory, where the natural environment will increasingly affect social and political systems, and human action will increasingly affect the climate. As CIGI Chair in the Political Economy of Climate Change and Professor at the Balsillie School of International Affairs Simon Dalby notes, “The interconnections between humanity and planet are unavoidable and as such the rich industrial portion of humanity has taken the fate of the earth into its own hands.”The science is clear: climate change is happening and will have a dramatic impact on human security. Rising sea levels, severe droughts, and more frequent and intensified natural disasters threaten the stability of nations. Instead of thinking about what states may do to hinder each other's security, states must think about the physical environment as a potential threat. The new geopolitics will not focus on conquering the living spaces of other peoples, but on guarding the living space of the globe. This requires a modification of the energy landscape to effectively govern the environmental system and deal with the climate change challenge. Latin America can serve as a model.As a starting point, states must deal with the energy sector, which accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions given that fossil fuels make up more than 80% of global energy consumption. With the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and Venezuela among the world’s top 15 producers of oil, the Western Hemisphere can influence the way the entire world generates energy and thinks about energy sustainability and climate change. Of course, there is reasonable skepticism about a breakthrough in clean energy due to economic and political factors, yet as the ecological carrying capacity of the planet begins to corrode, states may begin to take risks. A green energy revolution could develop in one region and spread throughout the globe. Secretary Kerry implies that Latin America may be that region.Kerry stated that, “If we harness the power of the wind in Mexico and the biomass in Brazil, the sunshine in Chile and Peru, the natural gas in the United States and Argentina, then the enormous benefits for local economies, public health, and of course climate change mitigation could reach every corner of the Americas and beyond.” Analysts from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) also see Latin America as the “new frontier” for green energy investment. New investments in clean energy dropped 11 percent globally last year, but increased tremendously in Latin America. Clean energy investment in Latin America (excluding Brazil) in 2012 totaled $4.6 billion, a 127% increase from 2011. Brazil led the region in 2012 with $5.7 billion in clean energy. Mexico’s investment increased from $352 million in 2011 to $1.9 billion in 2012; Chile’s from $216 million to $840 million; and Peru’s from $239 million to $608 million. In 2012, 20 of Latin America’s 26 countries attracted new clean energy capital, and the total number of low-carbon energy policies in the region grew to 110 from 80 last year. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change illustrates that the technology exists for renewables to meet global energy demand. By 2050, about 77 percent of the world’s energy needs can be met by renewables with existing technologies. Adopting policies that encourage greater investment in clean energy technologies will not be easy, but they will provide an appropriate solution to dealing with climate change and securing the prosperity and physical safety of future generations.The United States’ foreign policy priority in Latin America indicates one step in enacting necessary energy policies. Through the Energy and Climate Partnership of the Americas, the United States has collaborated with more than two-dozen countries to promote clean energy, low-carbon development, and climate-resilient growth. Secretary Kerry recognizes that nations working alone cannot adequately address the climate change challenge, that "the Americas have become the new center of our global energy map,” and that “we need to embrace the energy future over the energy of the past.”

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