Fork In the Road: Serbia’s Dilemma

For many years, Serbia has found itself teetering between the East and the West. On one side, the West promises a new chance for prosperity and stability. On the other side, Russia offers familiarity and protection. However, Serbia's fragmented media environment has allowed Russian propaganda tactics to take hold, convincing the Serbian public that siding with Russia is more beneficial than siding with the West. Serbia occupies a key strategic point between Eastern and Western Europe, thus making it a point of great interest and concern for the United States. If the United States is to counteract Russian propaganda and accomplish its foreign policy goal of seeing a stable Serbia integrated into European institutions, then the United States must do more to support independent journalism and media literacy in Serbia.  

A Look Back

The end of the conflicts and eventual breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s presented its successor states with an opportunity to shape a new pathway forward. As a result, several states, such as Croatia and Montenegro, joined the EU and NATO, respectively. Serbia, however, has found itself conflicted between the West and Russia.

Many Serbs remember the events of 1999 as if they happened yesterday. In the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, NATO initiated air operations against Serbia for its aggression in Kosovo. Over 20 years later, many Serbs still resent NATO, and particularly the United States, for the campaign. Russia, however, had vocally opposed the campaign. To further sour the relations between the United States and Serbia, in 2008, the United States recognized Kosovo’s independence. On the other hand, Russia has declined to recognize Kosovo’s independence. As a result of these two factors, Serbian public opinion toward the United States tends to be unfavorable. According to a Serbian public opinion survey conducted by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, 13 percent of respondents believed that the United States was Serbia’s biggest enemy, putting it in third place behind its former Yugoslav counterpart, Croatia, and neighboring Albania. When asked “Which country is Serbia’s best-friend?” 40 percent of respondents said Russia.

In 2012, the EU recognized Serbia as a candidate for membership, but the joining process has been slow. Two alleged, but unconfirmed, reasons for this are that Serbia has yet to normalize relations with Kosovo and that Serbia has not issued sanctions against Russia. According to the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy survey, 51 percent of respondents believed that Serbia should join the EU, but 46 percent believed it should not, reflecting the split position of the country.

The Perfect Storm

The current media environment in Serbia has created a perfect storm of misinformation and pro-Russian sentiments. Several Russian media outlets, such as RT and Sputnik, are present in Serbia and offer programming in the Serbian language. Russian media outlets are highly skilled in exploiting cultural, historical, and political factors in favor of Russia and presenting both the United States and the West broadly as the enemy. In addition to Russian misinformation, Serbia's media environment is characterized by tabloidization and little investigative journalism, thus creating an ideal environment for spreading anti-Western and pro-Russian views. The Center for Insights in Survey Research found that 36 percent of respondents believed that in Serbia, "the major media is not concerned with factual and correct reporting of a story, but instead is focused on propagating positions that serve some particular interest." For example, on February 22, 2022, Serbian tabloid magazine, Informer, released the headlines "Ukraine attacked Russia" and "America is pushing the world into chaos," two days before the war in Ukraine started. 

To counteract Russian misinformation, Western media such as Radio Free Europe (RFE) and Voice of America (VOA) also present their views in the Serbian media. However, they are not as popular or readily accessible as pro-Russian sources.  For example, in April 2022, Radio Free Europe's Balkan Service published an article titled "U.S. Senators Urge Serbian President To Impose Sanctions On Russia." However, pro-Russian and pro-government political tabloids continue to be highly popular and easily accessible, at less than 20 cents per copy. 

The Time to Act is Now

With the war in Ukraine in its fourth month and no end in sight, Serbia must decide which path it will follow. Though Russia appears to be winning in the game of influence in Serbia, the United States can still work to support a healthy media environment free from Russia's misinformation. 

On March 2, the United Nations General Assembly held a vote for a resolution to condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine. Serbia was one of 140 countries to vote in favor of the resolution. Despite this, Serbia has continued to decline issuing sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine. Additionally, as the war continues, Serbian media has taken a more neutral stance on the war in Ukraine, though still with a sensationalist tone. For example, in March, Informer reported that Russia's military activity left several thousands of Ukrainians without electricity. 

The United States already works to encourage media reforms in Serbia. For instance, "The Support to Media Reforms activity" under USAID supports creating a sustainable regulatory environment for media development in Serbia. Yet, despite these efforts, the United States still struggles to accomplish its foreign policy goal of seeing a stable Serbia integrated into the West. Another possible way for the United States to achieve its goal is to work with the EU to ensure that one of the requirements for Serbia to pursue membership is a reformed media framework in line with EU standards. 

With no clear end to the war in Ukraine, now is the time for Russia's propaganda influence to end. If the United States is to be successful in countering Russia's influence, it must take Russia's soft power in Serbia more seriously and do more to support a fair and strong media environment in Serbia.