Myanmar’s Military Junta: A Threat to Regional Stability

On February 1, 2021, State Counselor and Chairperson of the National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi and prominent members of her party were arrested. This resulted in political leadership transfer to military control under the Tatmadaw. However, the coup was met with widespread resistance including mass protests and worker’s strikes disrupting civil, political, and economic life in Myanmar, nudging the country to near collapse. All protests and political resistance have been met with violent suppression, initially only attacking protestors. However, targets changed to the broad population, most likely to expedite acceptance of military rule. These violent suppressions have only exacerbated the situation, hardening the civil population’s anger and resentment towards the military. In addition to civil unrest, the banking system is ineffective, as ports are crippled and logistics are paralyzed. The current state of affairs in Myanmar pose a critical challenge affecting the future of international relations in Asia as the deterioration of political, economic, and civil life in Myanmar threatens the stability and security of the region.

Refugee Crisis:

 As the situation unfolds in Myanmar, the country is plagued with economic crisis, humanitarian issues, and a public health safety dilemma; a mass exodus into neighboring countries is inevitable and will be damaging to the region. The inclining economic turmoil will only exacerbate the current refugee crisis of Rohingya minorities currently residing in stomach-churning conditions in Bangladesh. Current conditions have only aggravated the situation and have left little to no hope for the return of the Rohingya minority to Myanmar. The potential mass exodus could lead to health risks to neighboring nations such as India, Bangladesh, and China, given that Myanmar’s handling of COVID-19 has been anything but transparent, and has increasingly worsened after the Myanmar coup. With a mass exodus from Myanmar, the subsequent refugee problem thrusted on neighboring states would impact political, economic, and civilian life through the ostensible stability of a global health risk.

ASEAN Effectiveness:

ASEAN’s response to the military coup has been fallible, and the organization’s procedures of non-interference, time-consuming decision-making, and pacifist solutions have been anything but helpful. The decision of a special envoy to Myanmar following the coup took longer than expected as internal conflicts continually affected the confirmation process of candidates. The point of contention during this period was whether or not the organization should consider the sovereignty of the new military regime, often inciting vitriolic dialogue between Myanmar and Indonesia. 

In late April of 2021, ASEAN leaders, along with the special envoy and General Min Auung Hlaing, Myanmar’s junta chief, met in Jakarta to discuss the political deadlock the country is facing, reaching an agreement on a five-point consensus in order to aid Myanmar. The consensus called for: (1) an immediate ceasefire, (2) open dialogue among all parties, (3) mediation facilitated by ASEAN’s special envoy and secretary-general, (4) supplying the country with humanitarian assistance, and (5) a delegation visit to Myanmar to meet all parties. However, these talks should be held with reservation, as opposing parties were not involved in the discussion or consensus. The day following the consensus announcements, mass protests erupted throughout Myanmar, all of which were brutally suppressed at the hands of the military. This was yet another example of the continuous disruption of civil and political life in Myanmar as a result of the junta and coup. The ASEAN special envoy has also repeatedly failed to meet the fifth addendum of the consensus and has not generated any form of dialogue among the opposition parties, all while the violence has only intensified. While there seems to be a growing unified approach to handling Myanmar, the isolation of Myanmar from ASEAN will only exacerbate tensions and push Myanmar further into a violent collapse. The crisis in Myanmar also reveals a weakness of one of the only regional organizations in Asia, setting a precedent of inaction, which could have negative implications for future conflict.

ASEAN must take more of a hard-line position over Myanmar’s junta and must actively monitor the clauses of the five-point consensus. ASEAN must focus on the realities of the situation and the difficulty of returning Myanmar to normalcy. ASEAN’s special envoy has failed to meet all opposition parties, including ethnic armed organizations, which is not only one of the points in the five-point consensus, but is a necessary factor to any form of resolution. The envoy must convince all parties to participate in ASEAN-led mediation through promise talks of possible liberties and the establishment of protection laws -particularly for the ethnic armed organizations- to minimize grievances that contribute to lasting peace.

Myanmar and China:

The volatile situation in Myanmar threatens China, in virtually every arena, from national security to public health. COVID-19 and armed ethnic minority conflicts along the China-Myanmar border, particularly along the Yunnan Province, pose a serious threat to Chinese security. Many armed militias that face the border oppose the coup and are fighting the Tatmadaw through actively attacking Chinese businesses and interests, which have effectively wiped out cross-border trade along the Yunnan Province. Although a province inflicted with poverty, the Yunnan Province is seen as a gateway to Southeast Asia and was growing economically before the coup. Armed conflict along this location affects further investment, and not only makes it questionable and undesirable, but will force an unforeseeable number of Chinese citizens back into poverty.

Although Myanmar is in a state of deterioration and economic collapse caused by the military coup, China has continued its previous economic collaboration and venture projects.  China’s response to the coup has been a silent hands-off approach, which has only spurred military leaders on the violent and repressive path, tapping into long-held anti-Chinese sentiment, leading to attacks on Chinese-owned businesses, homes, and a natural gas pipeline that has become crucial toYunnan. However, China’s cooperation with the junta could negatively affect its standing and diplomatic position in regional organizations, such as ASEAN. Working in tandem with ASEAN and using the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, an economic development scheme created by the deposed government, China should use its economic influence, like the withholding of funds, over Myanmar to regain some semblance of normalcy and stability. Without stability and peace, China will be unable to access certain Special Economic Zones connected to the Indian Ocean, which greatly attracted China to Myanmar. The Chinese government must work alongside ASEAN to more effectively handle the junta and re-impose the civilian government.