North Korea: A Strategy of Coercive Diplomacy
North Korea's continuous missile and nuclear tests spark concern and alarm within the global community, but the international community have been ineffective in impeding North Korea's nuclear buildup. Although North Korea, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), is ranked 39th out of 39 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the North Korean government spends nearly a quarter of its GDP on its military. While the exact size and strength of North Korea's nuclear arsenal remain unclear, analysts believe North Korea's nuclear capabilities increase every year and the nation is now capable of reaching as far as the east coast of the United States with a nuclear weapon.
The best course of action for handling the North Korean issue is a strategy of coercive diplomacy that leads with aggressive and sustained diplomatic efforts to secure the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. The United States must significantly escalate pressure proportional to the severity of the behavior and actions of North Korea, especially as the testing and deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) increases. The United States must pressure North Korea to convince them that dialogue will be the only effective means to serve its interests while establishing durable containment. This approach would address diplomacy as a means to explore agreements that serve our interests while simultaneously providing a basis for increased pressure, like enhancing the enforcement of sanctions and strengthening alliances in the region to extend deterrence.
This strategic approach calls for U.S. recognition of China as an indispensable partner when addressing North Korea, since China is the only country in the world with enough diplomatic, economic, and military influence over North Korea to establish a strategy for handling and to resolve the North Korean problem. However, the US must reassure its regional allies while pressuring China and North Korea. Sanctions imposed on North Korea could amount to non-food trade embargos and energy trade embargos. These embargos will most likely have to be unilateral, as China will most likely oppose our efforts, and if they do so, secondary sanctions against China must be imposed. According to Harvard professor and economist Kenneth Rogoff, recent studies have found that sanctions on China or a break in Sino-American economic ties may have a smaller impact than previously expected. Furthermore, the impact of an economic split could lead to higher price markups by local suppliers and a reduction of goods available to consumers. However, China’s high social inequality rates, in terms of income distribution and education, could stymie China’s economic growth and diversification in the coming years. The past few decades saw China’s economy expand, social and economic inequality had little bearing on China’s political stability. However, the recent persistent inequality coupled with lower economic growth may have broader implications on China’s political stability, leaving China’s economy vulnerable to future sanctions. However, it is not so easy to assume that the effects of sanctions would be more crippling for one side than the other.
The US must reevaluate our regional alliances and military posture and enforce a durable deterrence campaign. The success of this plan will coincide with the consistency and seriousness with which the US holds this strategy.
Rationale for Coercive Diplomacy:
The Kim regime views the development of its missile capabilities and nuclear weapons as a special tool for defending the country and its rule against American military power. For decades, the US has used various strategies to thwart North Korea and the trajectory of its weapons advancements program. A coercive diplomacy strategy has many advantages that can lead to a successful denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
This approach lays the foundation for the credibility of dialogue and the effort to restart dialogue with North Korea, which will address China's main objection to U.S. policy against North Korea and its rationale for its actions toward the two countries. More importantly, if this strategy proves successful, the United States and China will rebuild cooperation, taking a significant step forward while serving the United States' diplomatic interests moving forward. Similarly, if the efforts fail due to North Korean transgressions, such as, continual missile launch tests or divisive rhetoric, the United States would have a credible justification to restart dialogues, placing the United States at an advantage when dealing with China further to support increased pressure and sanctions on North Korea. This strategy also shows both North Korea and China that the United States is prepared to handle China over North Korean behavior under possible and plausible unfavorable circumstances. Finally, coercive diplomacy avoids the risk of a failed effort leading to consequential pressure on North Korea.
National Security Implications of Coercive Diplomacy:
The following list details the national security implications of coercive diplomacy regarding North Korea and its persistent efforts to proliferate.
Cooperating with China but understanding the acceptance of possible confrontation.
Using this strategy comes with the caveat of cooperating with China. The United States must actively foster cooperation with China all the while mindfully watching for threats posed by China. While China has expressed its will to support the U.S.’s desire for diplomacy and renewed dialogue with North Korea, China can and will use the situation to its advantage, which could lead to the possible undermining of US objectives. Additionally, if efforts fail due to North Korean transgressions, the United States would have justification to restart dialogue, placing the United States at an advantage when dealing with China. Nevertheless, the US must be prepared for contradictions and confrontation with China.
2. Strengthening U.S. regional alliances with Japan and South Korea
Our partnerships in East Asia remain critical factors in our policy-making towards North Korea and are the basis of a coercive diplomacy strategy. Our alliances deter North Korean military provocation, mitigate escalation, and aid in presenting a united front in dealing with North Korea. Coalition building, specifically with regional allies, remains crucial. For any successful strategy, the United States must secure support from our allies within the region, particularly from South Korea, to ensure the effectiveness of our efforts abroad and mitigate criticism. While the US focuses and takes the lead on North Korea's missile and nuclear proliferation, South Korea remains a significant factor in negotiations and should be included in dialogue with North Korea. The US must also encourage cooperation among the U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral alliance by elevating shared defense strategies. Lastly, the United States must encourage steps that bolster deterrence while reassuring our allies in the region, possibly a comprehensive framework detailing initiatives and the details of each prominent actors' role.
